JMU football opens the Bob Chesney era Saturday night in Charlotte, and the Dukes could be facing a severely injured 49ers squad.

Biff Poggi told the media his Charlotte team has about nine starters banged up, with the possibility the team doesn’t have its full allotment of starters available until late September. Poggi didn’t mention which guys might miss Saturday’s season opener, but the betting line shifted toward JMU following the news.

The Odds

The Dukes were a double-digit favorite on some sportsbooks when the line first opened, but it moved to less than a touchdown before Poggi’s comments about injuries. Since then, the line quickly moved back to the -8.5 across multiple sportsbooks, with some as high as -9.5 in favor of JMU.

JMU is nearly a double-digit favorite on some sports betting apps, although most have JMU at -8.5. The total for JMU-Charlotte opened at 52.5 at several sportsbooks, but the total has since dropped to 48.5 points.

JMU Ready to Reload?

This game is a challenging one to bet on given the massive uncertainty facing each team. Both teams are transfer heavy, and Charlotte claims to be quite banged up.

JMU has a new head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, in addition to a bunch of new transfer additions. Many of the Dukes’ best players from 2023 either graduated or followed former head coach Curt Cignetti to Indiana.

Still, the Dukes boast a good roster. JMU added multiple high-level FCS transfers, especially on defense. Long Island DE Eric O’Neill, Youngstown State DT Chris Fitzgerald, and LB Jacob Dobbs have a combined 99 career starts at the FCS level.

O’Neill was the 2023 NEC Defensive Player of the Year, Fitzgerald was a top-10 FCS run defender at DT (per Pro Football Focus), and Dobbs is a two-time Conference DPOTY with NFL potential.

JMU’s defense should still be among the five best in the Sun Belt, especially if veteran transfer defensive backs Terrence Spence (Holy Cross), Jordan Taylor (Tusculum), Chris Shearin (UConn), Ray Williams (Howard), and Ja’Kai Young (Gardner-Webb) help bolster a unit that struggled to stop explosive plays in 2023. That quintet comes to JMU with 107 combined starts.

Offensively, JMU has a veteran offensive line and some of the best running backs at the Group of Five level. Ayo Adeyi (North Texas), Jobi Malary (Portland State), and Tyler Purdy (Holy Cross) make the position group far better than JMU’s 2023 squad. If Washington transfer Dylan Morris or returner Alonza Barnett can play decently well at quarterback, the Dukes could be one of the most efficient offenses in the Sun Belt, even without Jordan McCloud.

New head coach Bob Chesney is 111-46 as a head coach, suggesting JMU hired a new leader capable of accelerating the program without a down year.

Brown to Fix Charlotte’s Offense?

Charlotte struggled offensively in 2023, finishing the year second-to-last in the AAC in points per game (17.5). The 49ers brought in Florida transfer Max Brown to run the offense, and it’s possible the quarterback changes Charlotte’s 2024 outlook.

Brown played sparingly for the Gators, but he flashed top-end talent as both a runner and passer at times in the SEC. Still, there’s a reason he left Florida and ended up at a middling Group of Five team. Brown is extremely talented, but his skills aren’t completely polished yet.

If Brown can avoid turnovers against the Dukes and let his natural athleticism shine, the 49ers could pull the upset. If Brown looks immature against a JMU defense that shouldn’t take much of a step back, the Dukes could force multiple turnovers and win by 10+ points.

Defensively, a fully healthy Charlotte should be respectable. The defensive front looks good, with edge rusher Stone Handy capable of creating havoc. Cornerback Dontae Balfour is among the best defensive backs in the AAC and a legit NFL prospect.

Best Bets for JMU-Charlotte

Given JMU’s likely emphasis on the run game, and Charlotte’s 2023 offensive woes, the under looks like a strong play. I’m expecting a game with limited possessions, as both offenses prefer to lean on the running game when possible. Charlotte’s defense is the strength of its team, which could lead to a game with a fair number of punts. With JMU breaking in a new quarterback and offensive coordinator, I’d expect some Week 1 clunkiness.

As for the spread, I like JMU to steamroll a banged up and inconsistent Charlotte team, even with massive turnover among coaches and players. The Dukes have the better overall roster, and JMU fans should travel well to Charlotte. I’m not expecting an intimidating environment — Charlotte was running a BOGO ticket promotion this week to fill the 15,000-seat stadium — and JMU’s head coach has more proven head coaching success at the college level.

I like Brown’s talent for Charlotte at QB, but he flashed at Florida with SEC talent surrounding him. It’s going to be harder to flash – at least early in the season against JMU, UNC, and Indiana – with a less talented (and apparently banged up) supporting cast.

Pick: JMU -8.5 and under 48.5

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications