ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives JMU a 16.8% chance to make the new 12-team College Football Playoff, the second-highest chance of any Group of Five team. Boise State leads the G5 with a 26.7% chance of qualifying for the playoff.

The Dukes surged in FPI’s rankings after beating UNC 70-50 on Saturday. JMU’s offense put up over 600 yards of offense, and the defense and special teams units both scored touchdowns as well. It was a complete showing from JMU, and one that left UNC coach Mack Brown stunned.

“Embarrassing day, shocking day,” Brown said. “You shouldn’t be at North Carolina and lose to a Group of Five team. Period.”

Well, the Tar Heels did. As a result, JMU is the Sun Belt’s best chance to make the College Football playoff, at least as of late September.

As a reminder, the College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams this season. The playoff gives automatic berths to the five highest-ranked conference champions. Essentially, the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and the Group of Five all receive one automatic berth into the field.

It’s possible multiple Group of Five teams could make the field through the automatic bid and via an at-large bid. The easiest and obvious path for a Group of Five team to make the field is to win your respective conference championship game, which is needed for a chance at the G5 automatic berth, and be ranked higher than every other G5 conference champ.

Earning an at-large berth over a Power Conference program will be borderline impossible for most G5 teams, given the general lack of respect for G5s nationally.

Other G5 Contenders

Saturday was chaotic in the Group of Five playoff race, as three previously undefeated teams across the AAC and MAC all lost as betting favorites.

Memphis fell to Navy, giving up over 50 points. Northern Illinois lost to Buffalo at home, and Toledo fell to Western Kentucky in a close call.

Those losses create uncertainty in the Group of Five’s chase for the playoff. The Mountain West is in a fantastic position to represent the G5 in the playoff.

FPI also gives UNLV a 15.9% chance to make the field. The Rebels have wins over Houston and Kansas, and they’ll still face Syracuse and Boise State this season. UNLV could have an unbelievable resume, if it goes undefeated or only loses one game.

Chance to make the College Football Playoff among G5 teams, per ESPN’s FPI:

1. Boise State, 26.7%
2. JMU, 16.8%
3. UNLV, 15.9%
4. Fresno State, 7.4%
5. Memphis, 6.9%
6. Liberty, 6.6%
7. Army, 6.3%
8. Tulane, 5%
9. Sam Houston, 3.2%
10. Toledo, 3%

— Bennett Conlin (@BennettConlin) September 22, 2024

Liberty, which has a good chance to go undefeated if it wins at App State this coming Saturday, has a 6.6% chance to make the playoff, per FPI. The Flames’ strength of schedule will be a negative, but they’ll be in the mix if they avoid any regular-season defeats for the second consecutive season.

Teams like Fresno State, Army, and Tulane are also expected to be in the mix. A one-loss Texas State could also make a push for the playoff, although it lost to Arizona State at home to miss on a great opportunity for a signature win.

The season is still very young, but JMU (3-0) is firmly in the College Football Playoff conversation. The Dukes host Ball State on Saturday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications