When JMU football runs onto the field Saturday for its Family Weekend game with Ball State, the Dukes will be greeted by a fired up fan base.

The Dukes come into their last nonconference matchup off one of the best performances in program history, a 70-50 drubbing of North Carolina. With the win, they’re in College Football Playoff contention. Still, there’s a long season left.

Saturday’s game against Ball State isn’t without challenges. Not only do the Dukes need to avoid a letdown, but they also need to slow down what looks like one of the MAC’s better passing attacks. Redshirt freshman Kadin Semonza is averaging 273.5 passing yards per game in two games against teams other than the Miami Hurricanes. That game was a little rougher for Semonza and his teammates, as they lost to the ACC contender 62-0.

Against Missouri State and Central Michigan, however, Semonza looked better than promising. He looked like the program’s future at QB, tossing seven touchdowns and only throwing one interception. How will the Dukes slow down the young quarterback? That’s the biggest question facing the Dukes this weekend.

The betting odds

JMU is a significant favorite across sportsbooks, including DraftKings.

The spread: JMU -21 on DK

The total: 57 points

The moneyline: JMU -1450

JMU is 2-1 against the spread this season, easily covering the spread in each of its two FBS games this fall. The Dukes are 22-5 since joining the FBS level, and they’re 11-2 in home games during that span.

Saturday’s game kicks off at 1:30 p.m. ET and will stream on ESPN+. While it’s rained a lot in Harrisonburg this week and will early next week, Saturday’s weather should be free of rain. Weather shouldn’t impact the game (or attendance) much, if it does at all.

Picks and predictions

I like Semonza and Ball State’s passing attack, but I’m bearish on the program. Head coach Mike Neu is just 38-58 at Ball State, and the Cardinals lost 62-0 against the most competent team it has played this season.

JMU looks like it might be closer in quality to Miami than it is to Missouri State or Central Michigan. Missouri State is 2-2 this season, as is Central Michigan. One of Central Michigan’s losses was an ugly 52-16 loss to FIU, one of the worst teams in the FBS.

ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks Central Michigan 114th out of 134 FBS teams. For comparison, JMU ranks 59th and Miami ranks 7th. There’s a 52-team gap between JMU and Miami and a 55-team gap between JMU and Central Michigan. 

This could be a spot for JMU to blow the doors off a subpar opponent. The Dukes beat Charlotte (124th in FPI) by 23 points on the road, and Charlotte’s defense is respectable. Ball State’s defense is a major liability.

Ball State allowed both Central Michigan and Miami to amass over 500 yards against it. Miami racked up more than 700 yards in the victory.

For a JMU team coming off a 70-point showing against North Carolina, this game could get out of hand quickly. And Ball State’s strength – accurate passing – could be negated by a JMU defense that ranks fifth nationally in turnovers gained with 10 through three games.

I expect JMU to cruise in this spot, as the Dukes’ are still undervalued in the betting market because of their 13-6 win over Gardner-Webb.

The pick: JMU -20.5

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications