JMU football opens conference play this weekend against ULM. The Warhawks are a surprising 3-1 to start the season, perhaps showing more defensive fortitude than many expected under first-year head coach Bryant Vincent.

Here are three keys to the game for the Dukes, who hope to improve to 5-0 with a win. The game kicks off Saturday night at 7 p.m. ET, and the game will air on ESPNU.

Dominate defensively

ULM has failed to surpass 300 total yards in all three of its games against FBS teams. The Warhawks’ average of 247 yards per game is 129th nationally, and they average 19.5 points per game, which is good for 114th nationally.

The Warhawks’ run-blocking grade on Pro Football Focus is the 10th-worst in the FBS, and their pass-blocking grade is in the bottom 100 nationally. The team’s passing grade is the third-worst mark in the FBS.

JMU’s defense held Charlotte, Gardner-Webb, and Ball State to less than 10 points each. Against non-Power Four teams, the Dukes’ defense has been a dominant force. JMU’s defense scored a touchdown against Ball State, in addition to its five-sack performance.

Coach Bob Chesney and JMU’s staff will spend the week talking about the challenges ULM presents and how talented the Warhawks are offensively. Well, last week Chesney and company praised Ball State before a 63-7 blowout.

Let’s be honest with ourselves. ULM’s offense is one of the worst in the entire FBS. The Dukes’ defense should control this game, and it’s reasonable to think if JMU scores 20 points the game is effectively over. ULM’s offense has been brutally bad, and JMU’s offense should take advantage with another disruptive performance.

Take care of the ball

This always matters, but it’s even more important this week than most. ULM is 3-1 mostly because the Warhawks have been fantastic at winning the turnover battle. They rank 18th nationally, averaging a +1 turnover margin per game.

JMU football national ranks:

Turnover margin: 1st
Defensive TDs: 6th
Passing efficiency: 7th
Blocked punts: 9th
Yards per completion: 9th
Points per game: 12th
Red-zone defense: 12th
Sacks per game: 17th
Pass efficiency defense: 18th

— JMU Sports News (@JMUSportsNews) October 1, 2024

If ULM has any shot of pulling the upset, it will be because the Warhawks force turnovers and take care of the ball. ULM doesn’t have the offensive line or quarterback play to beat JMU without winning the turnover margin. The Warhawks’ offense managed just 13 points in a narrow win over Troy, but their defense kept them close against a subpar Troy offense. JMU’s offense is much more explosive, so creating turnovers is the best shot ULM has to secure a win.

Fortunately for the Dukes, they’ve been the best team in the nation when it comes to turnover margin. JMU leads the FBS with a turnover margin of +2.5 per game.

Alonza Barnett hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 1, as he’s scored 13 touchdowns in the last two games without giving the ball away. Barnett doesn’t need to look like a Heisman candidate to beat ULM. If he takes care of the ball and avoids big mistakes, JMU’s defense and running game should do enough for the Dukes to start league play 1-0.

Don’t look ahead

JMU plays Coastal Carolina on Oct. 10 on ESPN2. The Dukes will host the Chanticleers for that Thursday night game, and it’s guaranteed to generate excitement on campus and across the G5 with ESPN in town for a Sun Belt East rivalry.

The Dukes did well to take the Ball State game seriously, not looking ahead to conference play. If the Dukes stay focused against ULM, they should win. ULM is better than previous seasons, but the Warhawks aren’t close to being a Sun Belt contender. If they look ahead, the Warhawks are competent enough defensively to hang close at home.

This is another major test for JMU’s mental strength. How will the Dukes handle playing a road game in a sleepy environment at night? Can they bring their own energy and block out the budding hype for the Coastal game?

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications