Well, that didn’t go how JMU hoped. 

The Dukes, after putting up 133 points in the previous two games, sputtered against ULM on Saturday. They managed just 19 points and allowed a defensive TD in a 21-19 loss to now 4-1 ULM. The Dukes fall to 4-1 overall and 0-1 in the Sun Belt. 

“We didn’t execute at any elite level in any way,” head coach Bob Chesney said. 

The Dukes have a quick turnaround, with Coastal Carolina (4-1, 1-0 SBC) coming to Harrisonburg on Thursday night. Chesney wants his team to quickly put the loss behind them, but before we do that, let’s revisit the loss to the Warhawks. Here are a few key takeaways and observations from the loss.

The Dukes Should’ve Won the Game

This might sound like sour grapes coming from a website covered in purple, but the Dukes let this one get away. Not only did JMU squander an early 10-0 lead, but the Dukes also outgained ULM by 142 yards and won the turnover battle 2-1. They should’ve won the game.

Unfortunately for the Dukes, they were done in by a few costly mistakes. Most notably, quarterback Alonza Barnett fumbled the ball late in the first half, just moments after ULM muffed a punt and set up JMU in scoring position before halftime. Barnett’s fumble was not only recovered, but returned for a touchdown.

ULM’s offense once again struggled, failing to put up 300 yards of offense. The Warhawks averaged a woeful 4.3 yards per play, committed 75 yards worth of penalties (12 more than JMU, believe it or not) and still won the game. That was largely due to the fumble return TD, which took a 10-7 JMU lead and turned it into a 14-10 ULM lead. JMU gave ULM a touchdown.

Instead of potentially going up 13-7 or 17-7 at halftime, JMU trailed 14-13 after a late field goal. The one play had arguably a 10 or 14-point swing, giving ULM a TD and costing JMU at least a FG. In a two-point game, that makes all the difference.

JMU needed to avoid major mistakes to win. Instead, the Dukes allowed a defensive TD, committed 11 penalties, and went 1-5 on fourth downs. The execution wasn’t good enough to beat a ULM team that is definitely improving under head coach Bryant Vincent.

I’m not in agreement with comparing this to road losses to New Hampshire during the FCS era, as New Hampshire was unbelievably successful at home and a top-end FCS team for much of the last two decades. ULM is 4-1, but the Warhawks have yet to put up 300 yards of offense in an FBS vs. FBS game. They’re highly reliant on turnover luck, and the program has largely been a loser at the FBS level. They’re getting better under Vincent, but is ULM a legit contender in the SBC West in 2024? I don’t see it.

If JMU wants to be viewed as an elite FBS program capable of making the College Football Playoff, the Dukes need to beat a rebuilding ULM team. If “the standard is the standard”, fans are allowed to be frustrated with a loss to the Warhawks.

From 2011-2018, JMU went 1-3 at UNH. During that span UNH was 41-8 at home.

ULM is 14-15 at home since 2019. They play better at home for sure, but this is a really tough one for JMU to take. UNH was an FCS playoff staple! https://t.co/DyM3rNKgHG

— JMU Sports News (@JMUSportsNews) October 6, 2024

Passing Game was Way Off

Barnett completed only 20 of his 47 passes, and he was 5-15 when targeting WRs Omarion Dollison, Cam Ross, and Taji Hudson. Despite attending Sun Belt Media Day, Hudson has still yet to secure a catch this fall, as he’s battled injuries and hasn’t quite fit into the offense the way many expected.

Dollison and Ross were not their best Saturday, but Barnett also missed them when they were open a few times. The passing game was really out of sorts.

“When he puts it close, they’ve got to make the catches,” Chesney said. “And when it’s not close, they’ve still got to find a way to be in position to help him out a little bit.”

JMU was particularly brutal when under pressure. Pro Football Focus says Barnett went 0-9 when under pressure, compared to 20-38 with a clean pocket. It felt like Barnett was running for his life throughout the game, perhaps because receivers were unable to create separation down the field.

PFF gave JMU’s offensive line a pass-blocking grade of 65.3, its lowest of the season, but still a slightly above average number. The offensive line is taking a lot of heat from fans, when in reality Chesney seemed more frustrated with the inability of wide receivers to get open and catch balls in their vicinity.

One of the long bright spots was Taylor Thompson, who reeled in five catches for 59 yards on nine targets. He continues to be a positive at tight end, although he did have one drop. JMU had three costly drops as a team, giving the Dukes 14 on the season. They only had 16 dropped passes all of last year.

Where are the Stars?

Coming into the season, OL Tyshawn Wyatt, RB Ayo Adeyi, and CB Chauncey Logan were expected to be three of the team’s best players. None of them played Saturday.

Wyatt is coming back from an injury suffered late last season. Will he play at all this season? Will he try to receive a medical redshirt? His future this season is unclear.

As for Adeyi, he hasn’t played in three consecutive games after leaving the Gardner-Webb game with injury. Will he come back this season? The North Texas transfer rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2023, averaging more than 7 yards per carry. He’s a game-changer at running back when healthy.

As for Logan, he missed the Ball State game, but Chesney suggested he was fine and would be back for the ULM game. He didn’t play, though. What’s happening there?

JMU’s pass coverage grade of 67.1 was its lowest of the year. Logan’s presence could’ve been the difference between forcing stops and allowing a ULM drive to continue with third-down completions. Will he be back Thursday? JMU needs its star junior cornerback, who has a coverage grade of 74.1 this season. He’s one of only two JMU CBs (Terrence Spence is the other) with a PFF coverage grade over 70.

Last season, it felt like JMU always had a star step up. Whether it was a clutch Elijah Sarratt catch or a key Jalen Green sack, the Dukes made so many plays in crunch time to win close games. Just look back to the Utah State game, where JMU blew a huge lead by then got a Reggie Brown 74-yard TD reception to take a 45-38 lead and the defense stood tall. Aiden Fisher and D’Angelo Ponds both recorded late-game interceptions to seal the road victory. Three of those five players mentioned are now impact players on a ranked Big Ten team. The other two are chasing professional playing opportunities.

The 2023 team had some dudes. The 2024 team does, too, but where were they? Well, a few of the likely candidates to step up late against ULM were sidelined Saturday.

Couple questions this week for Chesney:

– Why didn't Chauncey Logan play/what's the status of Adeyi and Wyatt moving forward? Three KEY pieces.

– Is there a reason the team has played way better during the day vs. night?

– What's the issue on 4th downs? Dukes are 4-12.

— JMU Sports News (@JMUSportsNews) October 6, 2024

The Season Isn’t Over

I’m surprised JMU lost to ULM. It was a disappointing result, and fans have every right to be frustrated. I think the Dukes’ College Football Playoff hopes are dead — does a team with a loss to ULM really deserve a playoff spot?? But JMU’s season is far from over.

JMU’s lone “undefeated” season was in 1975, when it went 9-0-1. From 2004-2023, the Dukes had maybe the best two-decade stretch in program history. Only three of those 20 seasons involved JMU losing just one game.

The Dukes’ 2022 FBS team went 8-3, and it was a great season. Last year’s team started 10-0, but faltered late and ended 11-2. That group lost two games and won another handful by one score. The 2023 Dukes were not a dominant squad for much of the season, especially in the first half of the year. If you were expecting JMU to have the greatest season in program history in 2024, that’s on you! I get it, because the Dukes looked amazing the last two weeks, but it’s hard to go undefeated. JMU hasn’t done it since 1975, and that team had a tie in one of the games.

JMU’s “standard” is not going undefeated. JMU’s recent high-level standard is competing for conference championships. The Dukes still have that goal very much in play. The Sun Belt East is chaotic this season with no dominant team, and a team with two (or maybe even three??) conference losses could very well win the division.

Thursday’s game against Coastal Carolina is huge. If the Dukes can bounce back with a win, they’ll be 1-1 in Sun Belt play entering a pivotal road game with Georgia Southern. Winning the Sun Belt East should be JMU’s annual goal. If the Dukes also run the table and find themselves in the playoff hunt, great! If they don’t, that’s not the end of the world.

It’s borderline lunacy that some fans expect JMU to make the College Football Playoff before the Dukes have even won a bowl game. I expected JMU to contend for the Sun Belt and possibly make a push for a playoff spot this year if a lot of key pieces fell into place immediately. In many ways, the Dukes have (and can) still linger on the fringe of the playoff conversation. I don’t see them making the playoffs over teams like Boise State, UNLV, Tulane, Army, Navy, etc. but if JMU goes 12-1 and wins the Sun Belt, the Dukes will be in the conversation.

And not making the playoff doesn’t make this season a failure.

Go win the Sun Belt East. Go contend for the league title. Go make (and win) a bowl game. Beat rivals like Coastal, ODU, and App State. There’s a ton left to play for, even if the CFP dreams seem to have faded away for the time being. A playoff berth was always this team’s ceiling, not the expectation.

Now, if JMU goes on a losing streak and isn’t in the mix to win the East in November, it’s fair to be upset and ask tough questions. Let’s wait for that to happen first. JMU looked bad against Gardner-Webb but bounced back with two stellar games. Can the Dukes do that again and enter homecoming 6-1?

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications