JMU football might make the College Football Playoff this season. My money remains on Boise State as of mid-October, but the Dukes are still in the conversation.

That’s great for the JMU program and its fans, but it’s not why JMU joined the Sun Belt. JMU didn’t join the Sun Belt because of a 12-team College Football Playoff or because of bowl games.

The Dukes joined the Sun Belt for games like Saturday’s at Georgia Southern. They joined for the regular season.

Sun Belt’s Compelling Regular Season

In 2021, JMU’s last season at the FCS level, the Dukes played conference games against Maine, New Hampshire, Villanova, Richmond, Delaware, Elon, William & Mary, and Towson. Compare that to this year’s slate:

• ULM
• Coastal Carolina
• Georgia Southern
• Southern Miss
• Georgia State
• ODU
• App State
• Marshall

This is why JMU left the CAA. JMU wanted meaningful regular season games against other schools with passionate fan bases and proud football programs.

The Dukes sold out a Thursday night home game against Coastal Carolina on ESPN2. You think JMU would sell out a Thursday conference game in 2021? The Dukes weren’t even selling out all of their Saturday home games in 2021. The Dukes’ Oct. 30 clash with Elon in 2021 drew about 21,000 fans, and the regular season finale on Nov. 20 against Towson drew less than 17,000 people. JMU went 10-1 that regular season.

Yet this season, the Dukes are poised to sell out every home game. Student attendance and interest is skyrocketing, as going to JMU home games is becoming the thing to do rather than a thing to do.

It helps that JMU is 5-1 and on the fringe of CFP conversations, but regional matchups against good opponents make the Sun Belt an ideal fit for the Dukes and their fans. Instead of playing October games against Stony Brook or Maine — schools with iffy football history — the Dukes will visit Statesboro on Saturday to play a program with six FCS national titles and six bowl appearances at the FBS level. The Eagles’ head coach, Clay Helton, won a Rose Bowl at USC.

Saturday’s contest is an important conference game against a program that also cares about the result. The Eagles scheduled this season like a team wanting to be nationally relevant, facing both Boise State and Ole Miss in the nonconference. Georgia Southern lost both games, but it held a fourth-quarter lead against the Broncos, who are ranked 15th in the latest AP Top 25. They Eagles are a perfect 4-0 in all other games, including wins over Nevada (which just beat Oregon State) and Marshall. 

Georgia Southern is a serious Group of Five program, just like App State, Coastal Carolina, and Marshall. Playing them in October with Sun Belt East positioning on the line is exactly the type of game JMU’s administration wanted the Dukes to play when moving to the FBS.

Sun Belt East Title Game?

Saturday’s game isn’t on national TV — the game will stream on ESPN+ — but that doesn’t really matter. This matchup holds significance for the teams and fans involved, even if national attention will be minimal. JMU and Georgia Southern both have eyes on winning the conference, which is regarded by ESPN’s SP+ as the best in the Group of Five.

The winner of Saturday’s game becomes the likely favorite to win the East. The matchup has the feel of a Sun Belt East Championship.

For JMU, a win moves the Dukes to 2-1 in the conference with head-to-head wins over Georgia Southern and Coastal Carolina. The Dukes’ three weeks after Georgia Southern include a home game against Southern Miss, a bye week, and another home game against Georgia State. If JMU wins Saturday, the Dukes could easily be 4-1 in conference entering mid-November. Even going 2-1 in their final three league games to finish 6-2 would likely be enough to win the division, especially with head-to-head wins over Coastal and Georgia Southern.

A loss to Georgia Southern, however, would be disastrous for the Dukes’ dreams of securing the East. Not only would JMU drop to 1-2 in league games, but Georgia Southern would be 3-0 and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dukes. JMU would need to win out and have Georgia Southern lose three of its final five games to finish a game ahead of the Eagles in the league standings. That’s unlikely.

The winner Saturday is in prime position to represent the East in the Sun Belt title game on Dec. 7.

While College Football Playoff dreams are entertaining, that’s not why JMU moved from the FCS to the FBS. The Dukes moved up to have a better regular season against serious football programs with similarly passionate fan bases. The Dukes moved up for games like Saturday’s.

Don’t get lost in the playoff scenarios and forget to enjoy the race for the Sun Belt title. 

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications