Despite dropping a pair of early conference games, JMU football is still firmly in the mix to win the Sun Belt East. The Dukes just need a little bit of help from Georgia Southern.

Here are the scenarios for JMU to win the Sun Belt East (and perhaps host the Sun Belt Championship).

Win the East (simple version)

The simplest solution for JMU to win the Sun Belt East is for the Dukes to win out (beating App State and Marshall) and have Georgia Southern lose to either Coastal Carolina or App State. In this scenario, JMU would either have the sole possession of first place in the East or tie with only Marshall. If tied with Marshall, JMU would have the head-to-head tiebreaker.

This scenario is quite possible, as JMU will be favored in its final two games and Georgia Southern is currently an underdog to Coastal Carolina. The Eagles have been up-and-down this season, needing two miraculous fourth quarter comebacks in league play to reach 4-2 in SBC games. There are also questions about Clay Helton’s job security, as Georgia Southern fans were particularly frustrated with a home loss to 2-7 Troy.

Scenario:

• JMU goes 2-0 (at App State, vs. Marshall)
• Georgia Southern goes 1-1 or 0-2 (at Coastal Carolina, vs. App State)

Win the East (pure chaos version)

There’s another scenario where JMU can actually win the Sun Belt East with three losses. Yes, it’s possible.

This scenario is a little bit insane, but also the Sun Belt has been chaotic all season. Here’s what needs to happen.

First, JMU would lose to App State and beat Marshall. Then, Georgia Southern loses both its final games to Coastal Carolina and App State. JMU would also need Marshall to lose to ODU this weekend.

This scenario actually isn’t THAT crazy. Georgia Southern is an underdog to Coastal Carolina, and if App State beats JMU, the Mountaineers will need to beat Georgia Southern for bowl eligibility. The Mountaineers will be highly motivated to beat a sputtering Georgia Southern team with a coach on the hot seat.

As for Marshall, the Thundering Herd are road underdogs to ODU this weekend. ODU needs to win out to make a bowl game, so the Monarchs should also be highly motivated to pick up another win.

If this scenario plays out, JMU and Marshall (and possibly ODU) would end the season with three SBC losses. Every other team in the East would have at least four conference losses.

JMU would hold head-to-head wins over both Marshall and ODU, meaning the Dukes would win the tiebreaker and represent the East in the conference title game despite losing three times in league play.

The scenario:

• JMU goes 1-1, losing to App State and beating Marshall
• Georgia Southern goes 0-2, losing to Coastal Carolina and App State
• Marshall loses to ODU this weekend

Host the SBC Championship Game

How would this happen? Well, the clear path here is the Dukes winning out to win the East (Georgia Southern has to lose once for this to happen).

If Louisiana, which plays Troy and ULM to close the season, loses again, the Dukes would have a great chance to host at 10-2. Louisiana’s starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge is out for the immediate future with a possible broken collarbone, making this scenario slightly more possible than it seemed a couple weeks ago.

If Louisiana wins out, the Ragin’ Cajuns will likely host the SBC title game.

In this scenario, if South Alabama wins out, the Jaguars would actually represent the West in the SBC title game at 7-5 overall. The Jaguars have the head-to-head win over Louisiana.

It’s unlikely either JMU or South Alabama would be ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings entering the final week of the regular season, meaning the hosting tiebreaker comes down to which team has a better “composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Massey, and Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend of the conference regular season.” Essentially, do the advanced metrics love you or hate you?

Here’s the current advanced metric difference between JMU and South Alabama:

Anderson & Hester: TBD
Massey: JMU 63rd, USA 85th
Colley and Wolfe: JMU 36th, USA 87th

The Dukes would hold a clear edge here, especially with an additional win against Marshall (73rd Massey, 42nd Colley and Wolfe).

If Louisiana loses one more game and South Alabama drops a game, Louisiana would represent the West. The same scenario plays out as with South Alabama, and JMU would once again likely hold the edge in the advanced metrics category. The comparison is much closer to Louisiana, though.

Anderson & Hester: TBD
Massey: JMU 63rd, Louisiana 65th
Colley and Wolfe: Louisiana 33rd, JMU 36th

Wait, how does that give JMU an edge??

Relax, dear reader!

In this scenario, Louisiana adds a loss to either Troy or ULM (both are outside the Massey top 100 and outside the Colley and Wolfe top 90), while JMU would add wins over App State and Marshall. Finishing with a win over a 7-win (and maybe 8-win) Marshall team with good underlying metrics coupled with Louisiana taking a bad loss would likely be enough to give JMU separation from the three-loss Ragin’ Cajuns across those various metrics. 

If JMU wins the East by finishing 10-2 overall and Louisiana drops another game, it’s quite possible (I’d say more likely than not) that JMU hosts the Sun Belt title game on Dec. 7 in Bridgeforth Stadium.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications