JMU women’s basketball is 23-4 overall (14-0 in the Sun Belt) with wins over Florida and Villanova. The Dukes look every bit the part of a top-50 team nationally, and they’re even receiving votes in the latest AP Top 25 poll.

Is this the best team since Sean O’Regan became the program’s head coach ahead of the 2016-17 season? The two previous best teams under Coach O were in 2018-19 (the group went 29-6 and made the WNIT semifinals) and 2019-20 (that team was 25-4 before COVID ended the season prematurely).

The 2018-19 team dealt with injuries that played a key role in a heartbreaking CAA quarterfinal exit. As a result, the squad didn’t make the NCAA Tournament.

The 2019-20 team was well on its way to the tournament — and potentially NCAA Tournament victories — before the pandemic hit. That team, led by Kamiah Smalls, was incredible. The Dukes should’ve defeated No. 8 Maryland at home early in the season but blew a late lead. Still, they took down Villanova, St. John’s, Liberty, and UCF, among others. They went 16-2 in the CAA regular season, avenging both of their losses with a 30+ point win over the opponents (Towson and Drexel) in the second meeting.

This 2024-25 team is in the mix with that group. The Dukes are 23-4, with wins over Florida and Villanova. Three of their four losses came to teams in the top 15 of the latest AP Top 25 poll, including No. 1 Notre Dame and No. 2 Texas. They don’t have a bad loss.

Is an NCAA Tournament appearance in the cards?

The Dukes are on the fringe of the at-large conversation, although it’s unlikely the Dukes earn an at-large bid with zero Quad 1 wins (0-3 record). JMU is 24-1 in Quads 2-4.

They’re the heavy favorite, however, to win the Sun Belt Tournament and its automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament field. JMU is the only Sun Belt team in the top 100 of the NET, and the Dukes are 53rd. There’s a seismic gap between the Dukes and the rest of the conference.

Anything is possible in a conference tournament, but the Dukes have all but locked up a top-two seed in Pensacola. The new tournament format means a JMU team seeded No. 1 or No. 2 would only need to win two games to win the conference title. Considering the Dukes have won 14 straight league games this year, that’s an extremely doable task.

JMU is well-positioned to make the NCAA Tournament, and the Dukes are poised to earn an 11 or 12 seed, which means avoiding a true road game in the first round of the tournament that 13-16 seeds face. ESPN’s latest bracketology has the Dukes as a No. 12 seed playing West Virginia in Knoxville, Tennessee.

Comparing the Dukes to the 2019-20 team

The 2019-20 team may have had slightly more star power atop its lineup with Kamiah Smalls averaging 18.6 points per game on 47.1% shooting as a shooting guard. She shot 38% from 3-point range and 87.4% from the free-throw line while also averaging 5.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game.

Not only was Smalls the best player in the CAA in 2019-20, but she was drafted in the third round of the 2020 WNBA Draft and has since excelled playing professionally overseas. Peyton McDaniel (16.3 ppg) is the Dukes’ star in 2024-25, and while the redshirt junior small forward will likely play professionally one day, it’s hard to say she’s as efficient or athletic as Smalls at her peak. Still, McDaniel does more as a rebounder (8.2 per game) and defender (54 steals and 19 blocks through 27 games compared to 40 steals and 10 blocks for Smalls in 2019-20) than Smalls did in her final season.

Having Kiki Jefferson on the 2019-20 roster is what puts that team over the top in terms of star power, as Jefferson developed into a mid-major star and eventual Louisville transfer and productive ACC player. The Dukes’ 2019-20 team, which also featured Jackie Benitez, Lexie Barrie, and Kayla Cooper-Williams, had an abundance of high-level, professional caliber talent.

The current iteration of the Dukes thrives with its depth. Four Dukes average 10 or more points per game, with Kseniia Kozlova, Ro Scott, and Ashanti Barnes packing a scoring punch to complement McDaniel’s excellence.

Kozlova, Barnes, and McDaniel all average at least seven rebounds per game, while Scott, Jamia Hazell, Zakiya Stephenson, and Bree Robinson handle backcourt duties. Scott is primarily a scorer, while Hazell can handle the ball and score inside the 3-point line consistently. Stephenson leads the team with 83 assists, while Robinson (45 steals) might be the team’s best perimeter defender.

O’Regan’s current team might be his most well-constructed roster. There’s star power, but there’s also scoring balance and depth the 2019-20 team lacked.

To be the best team in the Coach O era, the Dukes will need a league title and an NCAA Tournament appearance. An NCAA Tournament win would put the team in elite company, as a JMU women’s basketball team hasn’t advanced to the next round of the Big Dance since 2014, when JMU beat Gonzaga in the opening round. JMU hasn’t made the Sweet 16 since 1990-91.

The Dukes need to make March Madness before dreaming of deep tournament runs, but the team’s depth, experience, and balance makes an NCAA Tournament win a valid stretch goal. It’s been a few years since O’Regan has led a team with this much promise.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications