It’s almost March, which means many college basketball fans are coming out of hibernation. There’s no shame in that.

If you’re a JMU fan wondering if the men’s team has a chance to return to the Big Dance after winning an NCAA Tournament game a season ago, this article is for you. And if you’re a JMU sports sicko (we count ourselves among you), let’s pontificate together about JMU’s path to a top-two Sun Belt Tournament seed.

Will JMU make the NCAA Tournament?

First things first, it’s possible JMU makes the NCAA Tournament field again. Last year’s NCAA Tournament appearance felt closer to a certainty. This year’s team is not nearly as dominant as last year’s group. The Dukes are 17-10, a solid record! Last year’s team was 24-3 through 27 games, and the record included a win over Michigan State.

Still, the Sun Belt is such a weak league that the Dukes are in the mix to win the conference tournament and secure an automatic berth into March Madness despite major roster upheaval and inconsistent play in the first season of coach Preston Spradlin’s JMU tenure.

With four regular-season games left, earning a top seed in the conference tournament will greatly boost the team’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament. The Dukes are currently in a four-way tie for first place in the SBC.

New Sun Belt Tournament format

The Sun Belt altered its tournament after last season, creating a system that rewards regular-season success. No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are given byes to the Sun Belt semifinals — rather than a bye to just the quarterfinal round. No. 3 and No. 4 seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals again this year, which is still a nice reward for a good season. Teams seeded outside the top four face a brutal path to win the conference tournament, needing to win at least four games in four days.

Anything can happen in March, but this particular JMU team that ranks in the mid-140s in KenPom needs every break it can get prior to conference tournament games tipping off. It’s hard to envision the Dukes making the NCAA Tournament without a top-four SBC seed.

Fortunately for JMU fans, the Dukes are positioned to earn a top-four seed. Earning a top-two seed is also very much in play.

The Sun Belt Championship brackets if the season ended today (Note: it does not. Four left for everyone).

I am at least 87% sure all the tiebreakers are correct. #FunBelt pic.twitter.com/llrp3JmGj0

— Kara Richey (@Kara_Richey) February 17, 2025

How can JMU earn a top-two seed?

Let’s briefly talk about scenarios — we can go deeper into tiebreakers next week.

JMU holds head-to-head tiebreakers with Arkansas State and Troy (two of the other three teams tied for first in the league), but it doesn’t have the tiebreaker against South Alabama. JMU would benefit greatly from at least one South Alabama loss in the final four games, but the Dukes can guarantee a top-two seed by going 4-0.

JMU’s final stretch makes a 4-0 finish quite possible. The Dukes face Georgia State (261st KenPom) and Georgia Southern (257th) at home this week before road tilts against ULM (341st) and Texas State (198th) in the final week of the season. The Texas State game, at least on paper, is the toughest test remaining, but the Bobcats have lost six of their past seven games and look lost defensively.

Arkansas State hosts South Alabama on Wednesday, a critical game for conference positioning. The Red Wolves will likely be favored by about 6-8 points. If Arkansas State wins, JMU would finish first in the league if it wins out, even if Troy and Arkansas State also both finish 14-4 in the Sun Belt because the Dukes hold the tiebreaker over both.

Things get more complicated if JMU loses a game (or two or three) in its final four contests. Going 3-1 still puts a top-two seed in play, but it requires help. A 3-1 finish all but guarantees a top-four seed. Going 2-2 or worse puts a top-four seed in serious jeopardy.

For JMU to go 3-1 and earn a bye into the semifinals (top-two seed), it needs to finish ahead of three of the following teams:

•  Arkansas State (JMU holds H2H tiebreaker)
• Troy (JMU holds tiebreaker)
• South Alabama (USA holds tiebreaker)
• App State (one game behind JMU in the standings now, but App State holds H2H tiebreaker)

That’s possible but not promised. If JMU wants to take the most advantage of the new tournament format, a 4-0 finish is critical. The Dukes can avoid most (or all) tiebreaker craziness by simply handling business against four middling conference opponents.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications