The Sun Belt basketball tournaments are underway, although JMU’s men’s and women’s teams won’t take the court until Sunday’s semifinals.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the tournament and JMU’s shot at winning to advance to the NCAA Tournament.

SBC Men’s Basketball

JMUSN’s pre-tournament favorite: South Alabama. The Jaguars are not only the No. 1 seed, but they’re also 4-1 against Arkansas State, Troy, and JMU. That’s deserving of being our tournament favorite.

The Jaguars are led by their defense, which leads the SBC in defensive efficiency during league games. UAB transfer forward Barry Dunning is the team’s top scoring threat at 14.7 points per game, and his seven rebounds per contest also paces South Alabama. Head coach Richie Riley is one of the league’s best.

JMU’s seed: No. 2. The Dukes finished in a tie for the Sun Belt regular-season title, but a South Alabama blowout at the beginning of conference play helped give the Jaguars the top seed.

The Dukes were the No. 2 seed last season en route to the SBC title.

JMU’s outlook: The Dukes only need to win twice to advance to the NCAA Tournament, but they’re likely to need two wins over other league title contenders. JMU went 1-0 against Arkansas State and Troy, but struggled in a loss to the Jaguars.

JMU’s backcourt of Mark Freeman, Bryce Lindsay, and Xavier Brown makes winning the Sun Belt title possible. The trio all have offensive ratings over 105, with Lindsay shooting over 55% on 2-pointers and over 40% from 3-point range. A lethal scoring backcourt coupled with a reliable big man in Elijah Hutchins-Everrett gives JMU one of the conference’s most dynamic offenses.

It’s the defense that might stop JMU from returning to March Madness. The Dukes rank 238th nationally in defensive efficiency, as they struggle to defend the 3-point line and don’t force many turnovers. It’s a bit of a shock, given Preston Spradlin’s emphasis on defense at Morehead State, but the roster construction doesn’t lend itself to great defense.

JMU will have a chance to win the league if the offense stays hot and makes up for a sputtering defense. If the shots aren’t dropping, the league’s other contenders are more well-rounded and will likely secure the conference’s automatic berth into the NCAA Tournament over the Dukes.

My pick: Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are 13-5 in conference play with four of the five losses coming by five points or fewer. Of the SBC’s teams, Arkansas State has the best KenPom rating and it’s the most balanced offensively and defensively. Losing both games to South Alabama in the regular season is concerning, but I’ll take the Red Wolves’ experience and talent level to prevail, even though they’ll need to win three games instead of two to win the tournament.

SBC Women’s Basketball

JMUSN’s favorite: JMU. This isn’t much of a conversation, as the Dukes went 18-0 in the regular season. No Sun Belt team has defeated JMU since last year’s conference championship game, when Marshall barely outlasted the Dukes in overtime.

JMU’s seed: No. 1. That’s what happens when you go 18-0 in SBC games!

JMU’s outlook: The Dukes will be disappointed with anything other than a conference title. They didn’t lose a SBC game this year, and they’ll only need to win two games in two days to secure an NCAA Tournament bid.

With Sean O’Regan the SBC Coach of the Year and Peyton McDaniel the Player of the Year, the Dukes have experience on the bench and the floor that few mid-majors can match. JMU is deep at all positions, and an off-night from McDaniel can be remedied by strong performances from any number of other players, including Kseniia Kozlova and Ashanti Barnes in the post.

It’s rare for an SBC team to possess JMU’s level of firepower, as there’s not an obvious weakness in the starting unit. JMU handles the ball better than last season and has more consistent scoring and rebounding in the frontcourt. Ro Scott’s addition gives the Dukes a potent scoring punch at guard, and veteran guard Jamia Hazell does a little of everything well.

My pick: JMU wins the Sun Belt Tournament and earns a No. 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Dukes are the best team in the conference, and they have the necessary experience to handle the pressure of a conference tournament.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications