JMU football’s biggest test of the Sun Belt season to date arrives Saturday. 

The Dukes host a solid Old Dominion team on Homecoming with a chance to throw a knockout blow in the Sun Belt East. It’s a huge game for the Dukes, and it’s one of the biggest G5 games of the weekend. JMU joined the Sun Belt for Saturdays like this.

How to watch

Kickoff time: 3:30 p.m. 

TV: ESPNU. Jay Alter will handle the play-by-play duties, and Rocky Boiman will be the analyst.

Weather: The high is 76 degrees, and the forecast calls for afternoon sun. With a low of 50, this should be a perfect fall afternoon in Harrisonburg. 

Opponent preview: Old Dominion

Record: 4-2, 1-1 SBC

Coach: Ricky Rahne, 24-32 (all seasons at ODU)

Top players

Colton Joseph, QB: The dual-threat quarterback is a stud. Joseph leads the Sun Belt with 246.8 passing yards per game, and he’s sixth in the league in rushing yards per game (80.5). He’s one of the best Group of Five quarterbacks, and he burned Indiana for 179 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries. He’s gone over 250 passing yards every week, except for the season opener against Indiana. 

Trequan Jones, RB: He averages a shade over 79 rushing yards per game. He’s averaging an absurd 8.8 yards per carry. While he isn’t a workhorse, he’s dangerous with the ball in his hands.

Seth Naotala, LB: He’s not the best defender on ODU’s defense, but he’s been good. He makes this list because he began his career at JMU. Naotala was a reserve for the Dukes, but he’s blossomed into a contributor for one of the better defenses in the Sun Belt.

Key to the Game: Stop the run

JMU’s defense ranks fifth nationally in defensive success rate against the run, allowing successful runs on just 30.5% of running plays. Old Dominion is one of the best rushing offenses in the Group of Five, generating a successful run on 46.3% of rushing plays. A successful play is one that gets 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down. 

In short, ODU generates a lot of game-impacting plays on the ground, and JMU is elite at stopping opposing running games from getting the necessary/desired yardage. 

It’s good vs. good Saturday. 

If JMU can slow down Old Dominion’s rushing game, it forces the Monarchs into obvious passing downs. And while Colton Joseph can beat defenses through the air, he’s yet to play a G5 defense like JMU’s, and he threw for less than 100 yards in a loss to Indiana. JMU’s best chance to win Saturday is forcing Joseph to beat them through the air, rather than allowing the Monarchs to run the ball. 

The same is true for ODU’s defense, which ranks 120th nationally in success rate against the run. JMU ranks fourth nationally in time of possession, and it’s likely JMU’s plan to control the clock and keep ODU’s high-powered offense on the sideline. But if the Dukes can’t run the ball, their passing game is wildly inefficient (108th nationally in passing efficiency) and inconsistent. 

The team that forces their opponent into obvious passing downs will win Saturday.

Score prediction

This game being in Harrisonburg helps JMU’s cayse. The Monarchs are the best G5 team the Dukes have faced this fall, and it’s not close. ODU plays well on both sides of the ball, although its defense can struggle at times to consistently stop the run. The Monarchs have a complete team, capable of racking up eight or more wins this fall. 

If JMU can avoid third-and-longs, the Dukes should generate enough offense to come away with a competitive win. But don’t be surprised if this game goes either way. Both teams can win Saturday in what looks like an evenly matched league game on paper. 

The pick: JMU 24, ODU 21

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications