It’s early December. JMU football has a legitimate chance to make the College Football Playoff. Pinch me!

For those who have followed our CFP rooting guide from the beginning, I appreciate that you’re a fellow sicko. Here’s to one final weekend of scoreboard watching.

Let’s enjoy it.

And here’s the TLDR of the following article for any millennials stopping by: JMU needs to beat Troy and Duke needs to beat UVA.

Carry on, older generations.

Friday

JMU over Troy, 7 p.m.

This speaks for itself, but we’ll ramble for fun.

JMU needs to win, of course, and style points could matter. With the Dukes favored by over three touchdowns, they might not be hard to come by. In the Dukes’ past three home Sun Belt games, they’ve defeated App State, Old Dominion and Louisiana by an average of 31.3 points per game.

Winning is the No. 1 objective, but winning big helps ensure the Dukes are worthy of getting in the field over Duke — and it might make the committee use their pea brains (“six seeeveeen”) for a second if North Texas beats Tulane. If JMU finishes its season with a blowout on national TV, it could positively impact the committee’s perception of JMU. 

Take care of business and Saturday night becomes highly entertaining.

North Texas over Tulane, 8 p.m.

It’s almost impossible for JMU to jump the American Conference champion, but the committee is filled with non-ball watching maniacs. They’re capable of anything. If North Texas wins by a point or wins but has an injury to a key player during the process and JMU beats Troy by 30 or more, there’s a chance JMU jumps the Mean Green. That’s highly unlikely, but again, this committee is full of lunatics who don’t know ball and are making it up as they go.

Additionally, one of Duke’s five losses came against Tulane. If Tulane falls here, it’s another ding against the five-loss Blue Devils — thus ensuring JMU gets in over Duke, if Duke beats UVA. Manny Diaz can whine all he wants on various On3 podcasts (I hope he’s still coaching his team?), but his five-loss team shouldn’t be in the playoff. Sorry, sir. 

Saturday

Texas Tech over BYU, noon

What? Why the heck is this here?

This isn’t a dealbreaker, but I’m rooting for it because I think the committee of bumbling fools would prefer to include the ACC in the playoff field. Miami still has a shot to get in as an at-large team. Here’s how.

No. 10 Notre Dame is off this weekend — if you haven’t heard, the Fighting Irish don’t play in a conference. No. 11 BYU plays Texas Tech in the Big 12 title. No. 12 Miami is off because the ACC tiebreaker rules are hilarious and the Hurricanes missed the ACC title game.

If BYU loses again to Texas Tech, it’s reasonable to conclude that the Hurricanes could jump the Cougars, especially if BYU gets torched by the Red Raiders for a second time.

As stupid as it sounds, if Duke wins the ACC, Notre Dame and Miami being right next to each other in the rankings gives the committee a lifeline to keep the ACC in the field. How? Miami beat Notre Dame earlier this season. The committee has suggested that head-to-head comparison could be more of a factor — it’s insane it’s not currently a large factor — if the teams are ranked directly next to each other.

If Duke wins the ACC and JMU beats Troy, I’d feel reasonably confident JMU makes the field over Duke. If JMU beats Troy and Duke wins the ACC AND BYU loses to Texas Tech as expected, I’d feel even better about JMU’s chances because it gives the silly committee the option of including an ACC team via an at-large berth.

This result isn’t necessary for JMU’s playoff bid, but it would soothe my anxiety greatly. If it doesn’t work out, I’ll trust Lexapro to handle the jitters.

Duke over UVA, 8 p.m. 

Saturday night, all eyes in the college football world turn to Charlotte.

Hahahaha who are we kidding, Indiana plays Ohio State at the same time. It’s No. 1 vs. No. 2! But for us, Duke-UVA is the big one.

With JMU ranked and Duke unranked, there’s an obvious path to the playoff for JMU. Duke needs to beat Virginia. This is realistically JMU’s only path to the CFP. And it’s not really a longshot! Duke is only a 3.5-point underdog at a neutral site against a Virginia team that has been maddeningly inconsistent.

Virginia has played perhaps its best football in its past two games, bludgeoning this Duke team (34-17) and smacking Virginia Tech (27-7). This game certainly favors the Cavaliers.

All the pressure, however, is on Virginia. If Virginia wins, it’s in the playoff. All it needs to do is beat a team it blew out a few weeks ago on the road. What could possibly go wrong?

As we’ve seen this year, Virginia is prone to stinker performances. Those include a 16-9 home loss to Wake Forest and a 17-16 overtime win over North Carolina. Washington State took the Cavaliers to the brink, too. Neither Duke nor UVA is an elite team. And when two decent but unspectacular teams meet on a neutral field in a championship game, crazy stuff can occur.

Late-down conversions and turnovers will likely decide the game. Virginia is one of the best third down teams in the ACC. Duke is not. That was largely the story of the game a few weeks ago. The Cavaliers strung together a bunch of third-down conversions, while Duke was dreadful on third downs both offensively and defensively. Can the Blue Devils narrow that gap? They’ve gone 8-for-11 on fourth downs the past two games, which is encouraging. Duke also won the turnover battle against Wake Forest, 4-0.

Duke won’t leave any stone unturned in this game. Expect an aggressive game plan with a willingness to attempt fourth-down conversions. If Duke’s offense can stay on the field more consistently than it did a few weeks ago, an upset is possible.

Come on, Duke. One upset. Please.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications