By An Intelligent Sports Mind

JMU isn’t just going to beat Oregon in the opening round of the College Football Playoff. The Dukes are going to blow out the Ducks.

While computer robots have Oregon as the betting favorite, they’re missing a few critical elements in the Dukes’ favor.

Let’s start with the obvious.

Oregon has to play at home. Talk about pressure! The Ducks, who are 1-1 against purple and gold teams at home during Dan Lanning’s tenure and 24-1 in all other home games, will have the weight of an entire community on them when they play on Dec. 20.

That’s a big burden to carry.

Another major red flag for Oregon? The team’s lack of comeback wins.

JMU trailed Georgia State by an entire touchdown the second half before rallying for a 14-7 win. While some teams decided to blow out the 1-win Panthers, the Dukes opted to take a 7-0 deficit into halftime. Why complete a forward pass when you could instead use the game as a learning experience in how to complete a comeback?

Chess, not checkers.

JMU has valuable experience trailing. Oregon doesn’t. Advantage Dukes.

Oregon will also have to deal with the distraction of its offensive and defensive coordinators leaving for new jobs in the offseason. Will they be focused on the task at hand or worried about their next stop? JMU could have a huge edge preparing for this game, given the coaching turnover in Eugene.

As UCLA Athletic Director Martin Jarmond beautifully stated in the press release announcing JMU’s Bob Chesney as the Bruins’ new head football coach, “From his detail-oriented approach to running a program, to his ability to connect, Bob impressed our search committee every step of the way.”

Chesney understands the details. He knows how valuable every second of preparation is for a playoff game. So much so that he’s taking an early week mental health vacation to Los Angeles to recharge his batteries in the warmer weather before the biggest game in program history. Expect him to be mentally fresh on Dec. 20.

Oregon’s coaches could have their minds elsewhere.

Perhaps most alarmingly for Oregon, the Ducks already lost to Indiana. Curt Cignetti, Aiden Fisher, Elijah Sarratt, D’Angelo Ponds and others were at JMU two short seasons ago. If you exclude Indiana’s non-JMU players, including Heisman Trophy favorite Fernando Mendoza who happens to play the most important position in the sport, Indiana is JMU.

It’s been a beautiful season for Oregon. The Ducks captured the hearts of America with their underdog mindset. For a team that was embarrassed in the playoff last season, just showing up on the field again in 2025 took extreme courage.

Kudos to Oregon. We’re proud of you. You are loved.

But all Cinderella stories must end. And sadly, this one seems all but doomed.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications