It’s a JMU football game week, and the Dukes’ 2026 schedule has been (and will be) a frequent topic of discussion this fall.

If the Dukes flirt with 10-12 wins, I’m not sure the schedule has the strength to resonate nationally in the College Football Playoff race. But as far as Group of Six schedules go, there’s plenty of intrigue. It won’t be a boring JMU season, even if the strength of schedule metrics suggest it’s forgettable.

Let’s rank the Dukes’ 12 games by difficulty, with No. 12 being the easiest game. I tried this exercise last year, and it turned out to be fairly accurate. 

12. Wagner, Sept. 12

This is an easy pick at No. 12. Wagner is JMU’s lone FCS game, and the Seahawks went 5-7 a season ago. They’re picked to finish fourth in the NEC this year.

In two games vs. FBS opponents in 2025, Wagner went 0-2 and was outscored by 39 points in each loss (Kansas and Central Michigan). JMU should win comfortably, letting their backups play much of the second half.

This should be particularly intriguing from a quarterback perspective. How much will we see QB2?

11. Georgia State, Oct. 17

I am intrigued by Georgia State’s quarterback, Cameran Brown. He threw for 13 touchdowns and just one interception a season ago. He’s a solid runner, too. He could make them interesting this fall. Maybe.

But the Panthers’ overall talent level is behind most of the Sun Belt East despite what high school recruiting rankings say, and this game is in Harrisonburg. If Georgia State makes a bowl game this year, it’ll be a surprise, even with Brown leading the offense.

10. At Southern Miss, Nov. 5

Charles Huff left Southern Miss for Memphis and gutted the roster. Typical Huff, leaving in a huff.

This isn’t the same team that won seven games a season ago. Even with the matchup at Southern Miss, it’s hard to imagine this team doing much in the Sun Belt West in Blake Anderson’s first season. Plus, Anderson posted 6-7 records at Utah State in 2022 and 2023 in his two most recent seasons as a head coach. It’s an uninspired hire.

This matchup heavily favors the Dukes.

9. Coastal Carolina, Nov. 28

Ryan Beard looks like a nice hire for the Chanticleers, and he could quickly build them back into an East contender. I’m guessing it’ll take him at least two or three seasons, however, and his success at Missouri State might be a tad overrated by Coastal Carolina fans.

He went 19-16 there over three seasons, and his teams never finished above fourth in their conference. Yes, the program’s successful FBS transition was admirable, but is he a home-run hire? I’m not sold yet, especially when it comes to an immediate resurgence.

This is JMU’s one game that comes off a bye week, too.

8. At UConn, Nov. 14

Jim Mora left for Colorado State, and UConn hired Toledo’s Jason Candle. I like the hire, but not the Year 1 outlook.

The roster was turned over drastically, and I’m not sure the portal haul will lead to immediate results. There are questions at quarterback, and Candle lost nine games at Toledo over the past two seasons despite loaded rosters. He’s a good coach, but his teams often underachieve relative to their talent.

7. Troy, Oct. 29

This should probably be lower on the list, as Gerad Parker led the Trojans to the Sun Belt title game a year ago. But the game is in Harrisonburg on a Thursday night, and Bridgeforth should be jumping. Plus, Troy’s stiff defense lost many of its top performers from a season ago.

I anticipate Troy being decent again this season, but Parker is 5-8 on the road as Troy’s head coach. The Trojans have reasons for optimism, especially if new offensive coordinator Adam Austin ignites that unit, but JMU should have the edge at home.

6. At Georgia Southern, Oct. 10

Georgia Southern might stink this year, but JMU is 0-6 in Statesboro. The Dukes have a hard time winning at Georgia Southern, and the Eagles can’t get any worse defensively. Fired DC Brandon Bailey is now JMU’s safeties coach, and Eagles fans seem glad he’s no longer coaching their defense.

Max Johnson at quarterback is highly talented and experienced — 49 career passing TDs across stints with three different Power Conference teams — but he’s also injury prone and played his best football five years ago. If he clicks, Georgia Southern could be a darkhorse East contender. If he doesn’t work out, fans will grow increasingly sick of Clay Helton.

5. At App State, Oct. 22

I’m not confident in Dowell Loggains’ long-term outlook as App State’s head coach, but I’ll wait until this season concludes before rushing to judgment. The obvious challenge here is the location. Traveling to Boone on a short week makes for a tough test.

Even if App State is mediocre, winning in Boone on national TV presents a real challenge. They added some nice lower-level defensive transfers like Findlay linebacker Kevin Henderson (15.5 TFLs last season), and Malachi Singleton is a talented quarterback who flashed at Arkansas and Purdue.

Will it work out in Year 2 under Loggains? Ehhh, we’ll see. But if it does, this could end up being the toughest game on the schedule.

4. Liberty, Sept. 5

The Flames shouldn’t go go 4-8 this year. I feel confident in that.

Their running back room is loaded — former Army star Kanye Udoh should feast in CUSA — and the offensive line has experience. The defense’s front seven should be among the best in CUSA, too. This Liberty team feels better in the trenches than a season ago, which should lead to a winning record at minimum.

Can Deshawn Purdie (or whoever wins the job) be more consistent at quarterback? The Charlotte and Wake Forest transfer is a turnover machine with a career completion percentage of 50%, but he has arm talent.

JMU will still be sorting things out in the season opener, which makes this a tricky spot. The Dukes were sluggish in 2023’s season opener against Bucknell. They sleepwalked through the first half against Charlotte in 2024, and the 2025 team took several weeks to really get going offensively. In the portal era, it can be hard to click in September.

3. Marshall, Oct. 3

I’m really high on Marshall. I like the coaching staff and quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is the most proven returning quarterback in the conference.

I have questions about some of the defensive personnel, but head coach Tony Gibson and defensive coordinator Brad Lambert are trustworthy. There’s a path for Marshall to win the Sun Belt, and if they can hang with Penn State in Week 1, maybe even push for a College Football Playoff appearance.

JMU is fortunate to get this game at home.

2. At San Diego State, Sept. 19

JMU’s first road game under Napier is on the West Coast against a likely Pac-12 contender. The Aztecs won with defense last season. Expect a near reversal this fall.

Coach Sean Lewis is an offensive mind, and he has enough returning talent for that unit to take a major step forward. The defense was gutted by graduations and the portal, though. This will be a much different team from 2025, but the Aztecs should still be among the better Group of Six programs.

Losing Virginia Tech on the schedule is a bummer, but the Dukes did well to find a fun replacement.

1. At Old Dominion, Sept. 26

The Monarchs return a ton on defense. Quinn Heinecle can run at quarterback, and I trust Ricky Rahne to have a competent offense, even with OC Kevin Decker now at Memphis. The Monarchs will have a great shot to knock off the Dukes in Norfolk the week after JMU’s important road trip to San Diego.

This is a prime opportunity for ODU to take the early edge in the Sun Belt East. The Monarchs also host Marshall about a month later.

Could this be ODU’s year? JMU will be tested significantly in the season’s first month.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications