We are just a few days away from JMU football’s season opener.

Before the year starts, let’s get a season-long prediction in writing. I undersold the Dukes last fall, predicting an 10-2 record and a Sun Belt title. JMU did one better, going 11-1 and then winning the conference title game.

Liberty, Sept. 5

There are a lot of unknowns! That makes sense for a Week 1 game in the transfer portal era, especially so with the Dukes having their head coach leave.

Both teams have quarterback questions. Both teams have decent offensive and defensive lines, at least on paper. Both teams have stacked running back rooms. Both teams have conference title aspirations.

I am particularly intrigued by Liberty’s running back room, which includes a pair of transfers I love in Duke’s Peyton Jones and Arizona State’s Kanye Udoh.

Here’s why I’ll give JMU the edge. 1) It’s in Bridgeforth Stadium. The Dukes thrive at home, and the crowd should provide a meaningful edge. 2) I think JMU will be better in the trenches. I really like the portal additions on both fronts, with Tyler Brown (offensive guard) and Rasheed Lovelace (defensive tackle) two names to watch for JMU.

JMU 31, Liberty 20

Wagner, Sept. 12

Wagner isn’t a great FCS team, and the Dukes are fielding what nearly amounts to an FCS All-Star team with some of their portal additions. JMU should control the line of scrimmage, and the Dukes’ skill players will be too much to handle in space. Expect explosive scores.

Robert Morris beat Wagner 28-7 in Week 0, with Wagner generating less than 100 total yards of offense and using two quarterbacks. Yikes.

JMU 59, Wagner 6

At San Diego State, Sept. 19

San Diego State will win games differently this year than last. The offense should be improved. The defense should regress.

If quarterback Jayden Denegal (a former Michigan player) can build on last year’s average showing — 9 passing TDs and 8 INTs — the Aztecs might be a legitimate playoff threat. Running back Lucky Sutton (1,297 rushing yards last season) is no joke. JMU’s defense better be ready to go.

The first road game of the Billy Napier era requires a flight and a time zone change. It’ll be a challenge. Will the Dukes be up for it?

JMU 38, San Diego State 35

At Old Dominion, Sept. 26

ODU’s defense is nasty, and this is a tough spot for JMU. They’re on the road after facing a challenging West Coast game the week before.

If Ricky Rahne can generate offensive production outside running back Devin Roche, this team will be really good. This defensive front, including Chris Forbes in the middle, will test the Dukes’ offensive line. I like ODU’s safeties and linebackers, too, with safety Mario Easterly (80 tackles last season) among the best defensive backs in the conference.

I give the Monarchs an edge here.

ODU 27, JMU 24

Marshall, Oct. 3

Marshall should be improved after winning just five games last year. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is among the top returning quarterbacks in the league. He had 23 total touchdowns and nearly 2,700 total yards last season despite not beginning the year taking all of the reps. He’s a physical runner, but he shouldn’t be too banged up in early October. Marshall is a team you’d rather face in November, after several months of Del Rio-Wilson taking hits.

Will the Thundering Herd defense be as good as Old Dominion’s? Maybe not, but the schedule is favorable. Marshall could flirt with 10 or more wins.

I think Cam Aiken’s offensive scheme gives Marshall’s defense enough fits at home for the Dukes to grab a bounce-back win.

JMU 34, Marshall 24

At Georgia Southern, Oct. 10

JMU has never won at Georgia Southern. But this shouldn’t be a scary Georgia Southern team. The defense has major question marks, and the Eagles are rolling with injury-prone quarterback Max Johnson to steer the offense. I don’t see the vision under Clay Helton, but there are some good pieces. Outside linebacker MJ Stroud (15 ½ tackles for loss last year) gives new defensive coordinator Mike Mutz at least one great player to work with.

I think JMU gets the monkey off its back, though. If Mutz can improve the Eagles defensively, maybe 2027 will be their year.

JMU 41, Georgia Southern 24

Georgia State, Oct. 17

Georgia State has issues. JMU has far fewer issues. I like Cameran Brown at quarterback, though. He’s fun.

This is the portion of the schedule where the Dukes seemingly have a nice chance to rattle off a few consecutive wins.

JMU 45, Georgia State 17

At App State, Oct. 22

The Dukes enter this week feeling themselves after two blowouts in a row and a nice win over Marshall. The spot trips them up.

App State’s roster has questions, but Malachi Singleton is an intriguing former blue-chip recruit at quarterback. The Mountaineers also went down to the lower-levels for help — Findlay LB Kevin Henderson is a nice pickup. Don’t be shocked if this season is the start of App State’s resurgence in the league.

App State 33, JMU 21

Troy, Oct. 29

Focused after a disappointing loss, JMU’s offense bounces back on a nationally televised contest. Troy should be one of the top contenders in the West this season under returning coach Gerad Parker.

My issue with Troy is the quarterback spot. I think Goose Crowder has proven himself to be a slightly above average Sun Belt QB. He’s plenty good enough to beat bad teams, but he’s struggled to elevate the offense against high-end opposition. Last year, he tossed three interceptions in a surprisingly winnable game against Clemson and completed less than 50% of his throws against JMU in the league title game.

JMU 37, Troy 23

At Southern Miss, Nov. 5

Charles Huff took the team’s best players to Memphis. This is a full rebuild under Blake Anderson.

Memphis, on the other hand, might be pretty good! Huff opened the season with a victory over UNLV, and several former Southern Miss players were in key roles.

After this week, JMU is finally done with Thursday games for the season.

JMU 52, Southern Miss 17

At UConn, Nov. 14

I don’t think UConn makes a bowl this fall under new coach Jason Candle. JMU cruises, although this is a weird spot.

If JMU is out of the playoff conversation, this game won’t have much meaning. How motivated will the Dukes be for a random November road game against a middling opponent? That might be the biggest challenge here.

JMU 41, UConn 13

Coastal Carolina, Nov. 28

JMU always beats the Chants. Big. Right?

Ryan Beard is an interesting hire for Coastal Carolina, but the Chanticleers aren’t expected to contend for the Sun Belt title in Year 1. He could rebuild the program after average seasons under Tim Beck, but nothing on this roster suggests a spectacular season.

JMU 38, Coastal Carolina 21

Record: 10-2, 6-2 SBC

I have the Dukes putting together a great season, but ODU is my pick to win the East with home games against both JMU and Marshall. Still, the Dukes will end the season very happy with Napier’s first year in Harrisonburg and eye a playoff berth going into 2027.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications