JMU football travels to California for a G6 showdown with San Diego State on Saturday night. 

Here are three reasons the Dukes will win Saturday … and three reasons they won’t.

3 Reasons the Dukes Will Beat SDSU

Passing game

The Dukes might have a better passing attack than the Aztecs, even with JC Evans sidelined.

San Diego State quarterback Jayden Denegal, who began his career at Michigan, is 6’5, 230 with a strong arm. But he’s yet to put it all together in college.

Since joining San Diego State ahead of last season, Denegal has 13 touchdowns to 10 interceptions and a completion percentage under 60%. He completed under 40% of his throws for under 50 yards in last week’s loss to UCLA. He’s never thrown for more than 260 yards in a game (he’s only thrown for 250 or more once), and the Aztecs often win behind their running game and defense.

While Camden Coleman will be making his first start against an FBS opponent, he’s 14-1 in his career starting against FCS teams at Richmond and last week at JMU. He’s thrown for more than 3,000 yards in his career, completing over 65% of his throws. He’s a steady passer, who should distribute the ball effectively to guys like Corey Scott and Noah Grevious.

JMU may have the edge through the air Saturday, even with questions in the secondary.

Rushing defense

Part of the reason JMU fans should be excited is the rushing defense. The Dukes, with a stout front seven, are built to stop the run. They held Liberty under 100 rushing yards in Week 1, a first for the Flames under Jamey Chadwell.

Through two games, JMU is allowing just 88 rushing yards per contest. That’s with only creating one sack, too. The Dukes haven’t racked up a ton of TFLs, but they’re stopping runs quickly. Teams have just a 36.1% success rate rushing the ball against JMU. 

SDSU’s Lucky Sutton is among the best G6 runners in the country, but he’s averaging just 3.8 yards per carry this fall. Can the Dukes bottle him up?

Special teams

The Dukes scored three special teams touchdowns against Wagner and nearly had a fourth. Morgan Suarez is a perfect 3-for-3 on field goals with a pair of 46-yard makes.

There are questions about JMU’s offense and defense, but the special teams unit is clicking. If this game is as close as the betting spread suggests (SDSU favored by 2.5 points), the Dukes’ third phase of the game could be the difference. 

If nothing else, it’ll be a stressful week of film study and preparation for the Aztecs after the Dukes looked unstoppable on special teams against overmatched Wagner.

SDSU’s unit is no slouch, either. It’s a good vs. good matchup.

3 Reasons JMU will lose to SDSU

It’s a hard place to win

San Diego State has a seven-game home winning streak dating back to the start of last season, and that includes home wins over Cal and Boise State. The Dukes are visiting a stable and competitive G6 foe. It’s going to take a clean performance to win.

Since joining the FBS in 2022, JMU is 24-3 at home. The Dukes aren’t a slouch away from Bridgeforth, but they’re 18-8 in road and neutral site games over the same span. That’s very good! But it’s far less dominant. It’s an 88.8% winning percentage at home compared to 69.2% at neutral or road venues.

Beating a good team on the road is hard. That’s the challenge Saturday.

Not finishing sacks

JMU’s secondary has been inconsistent, especially at CB2. A way to help cover up secondary woes? A consistent pass rush.

Unfortunately for the Dukes, they haven’t turned pressured into sacks. JMU has just two through two games. With a quarterback like Denegal, who struggles with consistency, creating sacks to get the Aztecs behind the chains is huge. If the Dukes can’t get home, Denegal has the ability to make them pay. He’s inconsistent, but he doesn’t lack arm talent or athleticism.

JMU’s defensive front needs to finish when it has chances to take Denegal down for negative yardage.

Injuries

I’m a big believer in Coleman and think he’s a more consistent and reliable passing threat than Denegal. He’s also the Dukes’ backup. Evans’ absence is meaningful. He’s an elite rushing threat and has great pocket mobility. The Dukes love his ability, which is why he won the job out of camp.

Linebacker Gannon Weathersby might be the team’s best defender. He played against Wagner, but Napier admitted he’s not 100% and still working his way back from an apparent knee injury.

Safety Javis Mynatt, one of the team’s top portal additions, has yet to play this season and seemingly could have a long-term absence. It’s unclear if he’ll play at all this season.

Power running back Seth Cromwell missed the Wagner game with an unknown injury after putting up a 51-yard rush against Liberty that helped break the game open. His status for Saturday is unclear.

It’s only a few weeks into the season, but the Dukes’ depth is being tested. Can they beat a Pac-12 contender with QB2 and their best defender limited? It’s a big ask.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications