JMU football (2-0) hits the road Saturday for a road tilt with an undefeated ACC team in the North Carolina Tar Heels (3-0). The game is JMU’s lone 2024 matchup with a Power Four opponent.

Can the Dukes pull the upset? They took down an ACC team last season, beating UVA 36-35, but the Dukes were actually the betting favorite in that game. UNC poses a tougher test, as the Tar Heels are well on their way to bowl eligibility this season.

The Betting Odds

UNC is a 10.5-point betting favorite over JMU, as of Friday morning. UNC has been favored in all three of its games this season, and this will be the first time in 2024 that the Dukes are underdogs.

The spread: JMU +10.5 on DraftKings

The total: 48.5 points

The moneyline: UNC -410, JMU +320

UNC is 0-2-1 against the spread this year, according to Covers. JMU is 1-1 against the spread, covering against Charlotte but failing to cover the spread in a narrow win over Gardner-Webb.

Pick and Predictions

I’m backing JMU +10.5, even though the Dukes struggled in Week 2 against an FCS opponent. I like the Dukes to cover the spread for a few reasons, with one of them being new head coach Bob Chesney’s history against higher-level opponents.

With FCS Holy Cross, Chesney led the Crusaders to a win over Buffalo in 2022. Holy Cross beat their FBS opponent 37-31 on the road. In 2023, Holy Cross came close to beating Boston College (31-28 loss) and Army (17-14 loss).

HOLY CROSS BEATS BUFFALO ON A HAIL MARY WINNER 🚨 pic.twitter.com/AaAsOW6J9h

— 247Sports (@247Sports) September 11, 2022

Chesney thrives when his team is in an underdog role, often pulling out creative trick plays and making aggressive fourth-down decisions to give his team a chance to win. While the Dukes might not win Saturday at UNC, I’d expect Chesney to call an aggressive game that puts UNC on its heels.

JMU also had a bye week to prepare for UNC, likely installing a few creative packages in hopes of pulling the upset over a Power Conference team.

As for UNC, the Tar Heels have looked average in 2024. They beat Minnesota by two points to open the season, and then they pulled away late in wins against Charlotte and NC Central. NC Central, a subpar FCS team, only trailed UNC by a touchdown entering the fourth quarter last week.

JMU might be the best team UNC has faced this season, as the Dukes are closer in talent to Minnesota than Charlotte or NC Central. JMU beat Charlotte by 23 earlier this season, a margin of victory larger than UNC’s over the 49ers.

Given UNC’s unstable quarterback situation – the Tar Heels lost starter Max Johnson to injury in the win over Minnesota – I’m not sure they’re built to blow out competent opponents. Omarion Hampton is a mismatch at running back, but JMU will likely stack the box and dare UNC’s quarterbacks to make plays.

The Dukes is good enough to make this a game going into the fourth quarter, especially if Chesney successfully rolls the dice on fourth down a few times. Don’t be stunned if JMU pulls the upset.

Best bet: JMU +10.5

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications