Saturday’s game between JMU (5-1, 1-1 SBC) and Georgia Southern (4-2, 2-0 SBC) is arguably the Game of the Year in the Sun Belt East. The winner will be the favorite to represent the division in the SBC Championship in early December, with the loser left to ponder what could’ve been. For JMU, a win also keeps the Dukes in the College Football Playoff picture, should teams like Boise State stumble.

Entering the matchup in Statesboro, JMU is a road favorite. That isn’t a major shock, given how well the Dukes have played at times — they beat UNC by 20, Charlotte by 23, Coastal Carolina by 32, and Ball State by 56. But Georgia Southern’s two losses are to great opponents in Boise State and Ole Miss. The Eagles are undefeated against currently unranked teams.

The Betting Odds

Spread: JMU -9.5 points on FanDuel

Total: 58.5 points

Moneylines: JMU -345, Georgia Southern +270

The Dukes are 4-2 against the spread this season and 3-1 ATS against Group of Five competition. Of note, the Dukes’ one ATS failure against G5 teams (-16.5 at ULM) was also an outright loss (21-19).

Picks and predictions

I haven’t loved JMU’s road performances against Group of Five teams. The 20-point road win at UNC was a beautiful showing, but a 23-point win over Charlotte included a clunky start and the loss to ULM was ugly. At home, JMU has won its last two games by nearly 100 combined points.

As for Georgia Southern, the Eagles are drastically better at home under Clay Helton. They’re 11-4 in home games and 5-12 in games at other venues. This season, the Eagles played Boise State tough at home to open the season, losing 56-44. Georgia Southern held a fourth-quarter lead against the Broncos before fading late.

While I think JMU is the better team, the Eagles have a legitimate home-field advantage and they’re getting nearly 10 points. JMU is 0-5 all-time in Statesboro, including a 2022 loss to the Eagles. JMU can win this game — and the Dukes can blow out the Eagles if they play their best — the same was true against ULM.

I expect Georgia Southern to keep this game competitive, even if the Dukes win.

The pick: Georgia Southern +9.5

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications