JMU football (7-2, 3-2 SBC) faces ODU (4-5, 3-2 SBC) on Saturday in a game with significant stakes. A win keeps the Dukes in contention for the SBC East, while an ODU win puts the Monarchs on the verge of bowl eligibility for the second consecutive year. 

Here are three keys for JMU’s road tilt against an in-state rival.

Rattle Colton Joseph

ODU’s redshirt freshman quarterback is really fun to watch. The California prospect can throw and run with the best in the Sun Belt, but he’s also a redshirt freshman.

While Joseph has just three interceptions this season, Pro Football Focus says he’s thrown 10 turnover-worthy passes. He’s benefitted from some good fortune on risky passes. He’s also fumbled the ball eight times this season in seven games played, as he’s prone to dropping the football. JMU’s turnover-heavy defense should be looking forward to this matchup.

His PFF grade with a clean pocket is 75.7, but it drops to 50.7 when he’s under pressure. Joseph is supremely talented, especially for his age, but he’s also clearly still developing as a quarterback. JMU can force him into mistakes.

JMU leads the country in turnover margin at +2 per game. If the Dukes win the turnover battle Saturday, they’ll have a good shot to leave Norfolk with a win.

Avoid third-and-long

ODU’s defense does a wonderful job of setting up third-and-long. The Monarchs hold opponents to an average third-down distance of 7.9 yards, according to gameonpaper.com. That’s the 12th-best mark in the country.

JMU has struggled this season to stay in front of the chains, averaging 7.46 yards on their third down attempts. If JMU spends all day facing third-and-7 or longer, it could be another bad road performance for the Dukes’ offense.

This is where avoiding presnap penalties becomes increasingly important. False starts and other unforced errors against ULM and Georgia Southern destroyed the offense’s rhythm and forced third-and-long situations. The Dukes need to be productive on first and second down and avoid presnap penalties. If the Dukes can do that, they’ll have a chance to score against an ODU defense that ranks 100th nationally in EPA per play.

Hit explosive pass plays

ODU’s defense ranks 29th nationally in success rate, but the Monarchs have been torched on explosives this season. The Monarchs have allowed 19 passing plays of at least 30 yards this season, per cfbstats.com. That’s good for 125th in the nation, making them among the 10 worst teams nationally in preventing 30-yard pass plays.

JMU started the season hitting explosive plays through the air, but found no such luck in the middle of the season. Alonza Barnett connected with Omarion Dollison for a 50-yard touchdown against Georgia State, suggesting maybe the Dukes have meaningful explosives left in them before season’s end. Can that duo connect for a long ball or two Saturday? Finding Dollison deep might be the difference between winning and losing.

Yamir Knight and Taylor Thompson thrived against Georgia State catching shorter passes. JMU also leaned on its rushing attack to cruise past the Panthers. ODU’s defense is built much differently, as it defends the run well but often gives up explosives over the top in the passing game.

Can JMU hold up in pass protection well enough to take deep shots? This will be a significant test for the Dukes, and we’ll learn a lot about how much the offense has improved since the bye week. If the Dukes can’t hit explosives, it could be tough sledding against a stout run defense.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications