Let’s be clear: The sky isn’t falling in Harrisonburg.

JMU football went 8-4, beating a Power Four opponent by 20 points in the process. Of the Dukes’ eight wins, six of them came by at least 10 points. The Dukes won three games by at least 30 points and five games by at least 20 points. That’s good!

JMU could be in a much worse spot after losing Curt Cignetti and numerous players to Indiana. Look at Troy, which lost coach Jon Sumrall to Tulane this offseason after reaching the Sun Belt championship in 2023. The Trojans went 4-8 and won’t reach a bowl game this season.

The Dukes are one of four Sun Belt teams with at least eight wins this season, joining Marshall, Georgia Southern, and Louisiana. They’re one of just three Sun Belt teams (Louisiana and Georgia State are the others) to beat a Power Four team this season. Again, that’s very respectable!

But this season was frustrating. It was frustrating because of how JMU lost its four games — context matters — and the opportunities missed. It was also frustrating because of what fans were sold all offseason and during the season.

Bob Chesney joined JMU and said his job was to “advance and accelerate” the program. He spoke in his opening press conference about how he operates his program like an NFL franchise. He even found major success in the transfer portal, adding players like running back George Pettaway (880 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per carry) and defensive end Eric O’Neill (17.5 tackles for loss and 12 sacks), among others.

Make no mistake, JMU’s 2024 roster was talented. Yes, there was exceptional turnover. But the Dukes are still among the most talented teams in the conference. That’s a major credit to the recruiting efforts of Chesney and his staff. They reloaded the roster rapidly and deserve credit for those efforts.

The talent level was evident in the fact that JMU led by at least 10 points in seven of their eight conference games. The Dukes led every conference game by double digits except the loss to Georgia Southern, and the Dukes won the turnover margin in that matchup by four.

JMU finished the season as the Sun Belt’s leading scoring defense and the fourth-best scoring offense. The Dukes led the conference in sacks (38), opponent third-down conversion percentage (32.4%), and rushing defense (123.7 yards per game).

Yet they made excruciating mistakes, especially on special teams, which Chesney calls “the heartbeat” of the program. JMU allowed three blocked punts this season. The Dukes ranked 11th in the conference in net punting and dead last in net kickoff coverage. Penalties (the Dukes committed 87, the second-most in the conference) were also a killer.

The mistakes were jarring and costly for a team that looked unstoppable in many of its wins. The inconsistency was maddening.

Despite all the roster turnover and coaching changes, JMU started 4-0 with a blowout of North Carolina. The Dukes then lost to a ULM team that went 5-7, 8-4 Georgia Southern, 5-6 App State, and 9-3 Marshall. They led three of those games by 10 or more points, including taking a 17-0 lead into halftime against Marshall.

LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WK14:
Marshall > JMU 13.3%
Army > UTSA 35.1%
ISU > KSU 36.1%
WKU > JSU 36.8%
CSU > USU 37.1%
MIZ > Ark 41.2%
Memphis > Tulane 41.8%
Cuse > Miami 44.9%
TXST > USA 45.8%
Iowa > Neb 46.7%
Mich > Oh St 50.1%

Full list: https://t.co/NIJtQpxI6l

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 1, 2024

It’s one thing to go 8-4. It’s another to start 4-0 and then stumble to the finish line, losing the final two games of the year.

JMU faced a soft schedule this season, making a 10-win season possible. ESPN ranks JMU’s schedule as the 127th most difficult in the country (there are 134 FBS teams). The Dukes will face a much tougher test in 2025, playing Louisville, Liberty, and Washington State in nonconference games. They won’t always have schedules that put them in position to win 10 games, but the 2024 slate was prime for the taking.

The Dukes had a tremendous opportunity after starting 4-0 to end the season with 10+ wins and potentially win the East and maybe even host the Sun Belt title game. Instead, they slipped up against two teams that won’t go bowling this winter and squandered a 17-0 home lead to Marshall. Yes, there was massive roster turnover. But that new roster jumped out to a 4-0 start and took big leads against App State and Marshall. The talent was there for JMU to win 10 games.

The results are a bummer for a program that won the East in each of its first two FBS seasons.

And yes, Cignetti’s team went 8-3 in 2022, but context makes that team more impressive, not less. QB Todd Centeio missed the 2022 Marshall loss and was still injured in the Louisville loss. In games with Centeio healthy, the Dukes were 8-1 with a one-score loss to Georgia Southern. Even with injuries factored in, JMU went 6-2 in conference games.

JMU also ended the season in 2022 on a positive note, winning the last three games, including blowing out Coastal Carolina to finish atop the division. The Dukes ended the season on a high. The Dukes beat App State that season as well, one of the signature wins of the Cignetti era. 

On the surface, this year’s 8-4 record isn’t bad. When you dig a little deeper, it’s reasonable to be upset with how the regular season finished.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications