I despise writing this, but I’m worried the Sun Belt as we know it is going to fall apart. At the very least, it’ll change drastically in the next decade.

There are plenty of pieces that still need to move, but I have a bad feeling about the league’s likelihood of staying together.

Texas State leaving for the Pac-12 served as a reminder that college sports realignment is about money, not conference loyalty. The Bobcats want the increased money associated with their new league’s TV deal, and they’ll also get to compete with brands like Boise State and Washington State. There’s a lot to like about the move, from Texas State’s view.

The Bobcats’ departure from the Sun Belt sparked the league to replace them with Louisiana Tech.

ULM, which has one of the smallest budgets at the FBS level, reportedly liked the idea of another matchup with an in-state team, which potentially leads to increased fan interest and decreased travel costs. Other schools were reportedly skeptical of adding a mid-level CUSA program, which plays good men’s basketball and is a middling football addition. Shane Mettlen of the Daily News-Record described why the move makes sense, but is also uninspiring.

Alas, the SBC went forward with the move.

Louisiana Tech is a fine addition, but it’s not a “needle mover” in the eyes of some fans and media members. Regardless of your opinion of Louisiana Tech, there’s a growing East-West divide that might be impossible to overcome. And it’s not just a divide fabricated by the loudest social media accounts. There are legitimate reasons to believe the divisions are unbalanced.

Let’s take a closer look. The West will have seven members, once Texas State leaves and Louisiana Tech arrives:

• Arkansas State
• Louisiana
• Louisiana Tech
• South Alabama
• Southern Miss
• Troy
• ULM

All seven of those teams play in states with SEC teams, including powerhouses in LSU and Alabama. Now let’s look at the East:

• App State
• Coastal Carolina
• Georgia Southern
• Georgia State
• James Madison
• Marshall
• Old Dominion

Four of these teams do not share a state with a Big Ten or SEC program. According to D1 Ticker, five SBC teams filled their home stadium to an average of 90% capacity or more in the 2024 season. All five — App State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, JMU, and Old Dominion — play in play in the East.

It can be hard to establish die-hard fandom in states like Louisiana, Alabama, and Georgia.

As for teams like JMU, App State, and Marshall, they have winning traditions and play in states without impressive P4 teams — sorry to UNC, West Virginia, and UVA, but they’re not LSU or Alabama. Attending Alabama and Auburn games is part of the state’s identity. The same isn’t true of attending UVA games (or even Virginia Tech games) in Virginia.

Unless the Sun Belt becomes the premier spot financially for G5 teams to play — this could happen if the AAC blows up and ESPN renegotiates its G5 TV deals — what’s keeping teams like JMU, Marshall, ODU, and App State from looking elsewhere in future seasons? If the programs win regularly and maintain meaningful fan support over the next five years, they’re going to be among the Sun Belt’s most valuable brands. In some ways, they already are.

And money matters.

Financial divide?

According to USA Today’s most recent annual data, seven SBC schools rank in the top 90 nationally in revenue creation. Six of the seven play football in the East division:

• JMU, No. 62, $57.8 million in annual revenue
• ODU, No. 67, $53.4 million
• Georgia State, No. 72, $45.7 million
• Coastal Carolina, No. 73, $45.4 million
• Marshall, No. 82, $39.3 million
• South Alabama, No. 85, $39.1 million
• App State, No. 88, $38.5 million

See, there’s that disconnect again!

Given their sizable fan bases, it’s reasonable to assume schools like JMU and App State draw respectable TV and streaming numbers among G5 peers. There’s value in both programs, which could give each leverage to leave if new opportunities arise.

This isn’t to say the West stinks. It doesn’t.

Louisiana plays great football and has been atop the league standings regularly over the past decade. There’s a case that Southern Miss is a sleeping G5 giant. Arkansas State has played some high-level football over the past two decades, and the Red Wolves have steadily improved in all four seasons under Butch Jones.

But those programs are fighting for attention with SEC juggernauts and at a revenue disadvantage to some of their G5 peers, including big brands like Memphis and Boise State, which each exceed $50 million in annual revenue, according to USA Today’s numbers.

It’s easy to imagine programs like App State, JMU, and Marshall in the playoff field. It’s borderline impossible to see ULM ever coming close. The Warhawks don’t have the resources necessary to consistently compete with the best G5 programs. Could teams like Louisiana, Arkansas State, and Southern Miss one day get there? Don’t rule it out, especially considering their recent on-field success compared to East teams like Georgia State and ODU. The West’s best teams shouldn’t be kicked aside during future realignment, but there are valid questions about ULM, Louisiana Tech, and others. Does Louisiana Tech bring the league any closer to reaching the College Football Playoff? It seems the Bulldogs were added more for convenience and stability than improved football value.

The East is 26-19 against the West since 2022, with JMU going 5-1 against the division. Louisiana Tech needs notable improvement to help flip that trend rather than becoming a Sun Belt punching bag.

Could the SBC grow?

I’m cautiously optimistic that the Sun Belt won’t die off, but rather it will grow. There’s a world where Memphis, Tulane, and others leave the AAC — maybe to join the Pac-12. That could potentially set up the Sun Belt to build out its league.

Imagine adding a program like ECU to the mix. That’d be heaven for members of the East. Could a team like Western Kentucky move to the SBC’s West division and strengthen the league? Maybe! The Hilltoppers have made bowl games in 10 of the past 11 seasons.

There’s going to be future realignment. My worry for the Sun Belt is that the East teams feel a growing desire to build or join something else, rather than stay put.

Imagine the current SBC East plus teams like ECU, Charlotte, and Delaware. Now toss in Army and Navy from the AAC.

• App State
• Army
• Charlotte
• Coastal Carolina
• Delaware
• East Carolina
• Georgia Southern
• Georgia State
• James Madison
• Marshall
• Navy
• Old Dominion

Maybe that 12-team league becomes an East division of a giant, 24-team SBC. Or maybe it’s a standalone league with a few MAC teams like Ohio and Toledo jumping on board.

• App State
• Army
• Charlotte
• Coastal Carolina
• Delaware
• East Carolina
• Georgia Southern
• Georgia State
• James Madison
• Marshall
• Navy
• Ohio
• Old Dominion
• Toledo

This could make sense if there’s a Power Conference breakaway that leaves G5 teams seeking decreased travel costs and increased regional competition.

Maybe JMU, App State, Marshall, ECU, Tulane, Memphis, etc. desperately try to join the new-look Pac-12 to create what essentially becomes the fifth P5 conference with a national footprint. Here’s what a 24-team Super Pac-12 (East/West) could look like:

East

• App State
• Army
• Coastal Carolina
• East Carolina
• Georgia Southern
• Georgia State
• James Madison
• Marshall
• Navy
• Old Dominion
• Tulane
• USF

West

• Air Force
• Boise State
• Colorado State
• Fresno State
• Memphis
• Oregon State
• San Diego State
• Texas State
• UNLV
• Utah State
• Washington State
• Western Kentucky

I hate the idea of a 24-team cross-country G5 league. The current Sun Belt makes me happier, but it’s hard to rule anything out after seeing realignment moves over the past decade.

Who knows, maybe the ACC as we know it crumbles and JMU, Marshall, ODU, ECU, and App State join a new-look ACC.

Predicting every future move correctly is a fool’s errand. But it’s obvious from the past decade that there’s going to be more chaos in the years ahead. There’s a never-ending chase for money.

There’s pressure on the West entering the 2025 season. Whether that means a West team needs to make the College Football Playoff or whether the division rises in relevance simply by getting improved performance from a team like Southern Miss in 2025 and beyond, the current league looks unbalanced in favor of the East.

Realignment isn’t stopping in the next decade. I’m worried about the Sun Belt’s future because the possibility of a growing East-West divide isn’t just a message board fantasy.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications