This take could come back to make me look like a moron — it wouldn’t be the first time! — but I firmly believe JMU’s offense is close to a major breakthrough.

I can hear you now. Bennett, what are you talking about?? The Dukes’ offense that scored 24 points this week and 14 the week before with 74 passing yards? That offense is close to a breakthrough?

I think so! Here’s why.

JMU has averaged 467 yards per game in wins over Liberty, Georgia Southern, and Louisiana. In those three games, though, the Dukes are averaging about 28 points per game. Why?

Red-zone struggles and fourth-down failures, and they go hand in hand. The Dukes have had 25 trips into the red-zone this season, and 17 (68%) have resulted in touchdowns. But 20% of trips haven’t resulted in any points at all. It’s worse in Sun Belt play, with 30% of red-zone trips coming up completely empty. That’s concerning, but fixable.

Against Louisiana, JMU had four red-zone trips. Two ended in touchdowns. One ended in a field goal, and another ended with a turnover on downs with Matthew Sluka at QB.

In total, JMU had six drives end in Louisiana territory without points to show for it. The passing game was dreadful against Georgia State, but 74 passing yards is an outlier game. In the other three G5 games this season, JMU has gone well over 400 yards of offense. The issue has been turning yards into points.

Against Liberty, JMU had just one drive end in Flames territory without points. The Dukes largely dominated the low-possession game aside from their goal-line interception. Against Georgia State, JMU had four drives end in opposing territory without scoring on those drives. The same was true against Georgia Southern.

In Sun Belt games, JMU has had 14 scoreless drives end in opposing territory. The Dukes are so, so close.

In 2024, JMU converted 64% of its red-zone trips into TDs, but only 14% of red-zone opportunities ended without any points. In 2025, the Dukes have seen a 6% increase in red-zone chances without any points. There are also drives ending between midfield and the opponents’ 20-yard line ending with nothing to show for it.

I’d argue JMU needs to ponder its fourth-down strategy, which could help turn these promising drives into points. JMU was 121st in fourth-down conversion percentage (37.9%) in 2024. This year, the Dukes are 109th at 40%.

JMU has two options. 1) Become ultra conservative on fourth-and-short. Instead of going for it with a power run, consider kicking field goals in the red zone. Settling isn’t fun, but JMU has one of the best defenses in college football. JMU can win games by settling for kicks. 2) Stick to the aggressiveness, but increase the efficiency on fourth down.

No. 2 is the dream.

Holy Cross ranked 20th in the FCS in 2023, converting 62.1% of its fourth downs. The Crusaders converted 56% in 2022, good for 28th nationally. There’s a case to be made that JMU’s offense is close to reverting to its mean under Dean Kennedy and Bob Chesney.

In 2023, which was Kennedy’s lone season as Holy Cross’ OC, the Crusaders scored touchdowns on 76% of their red-zone trips. Kennedy and Chesney have a history of better fourth-down play and higher scoring output — Holy Cross ranked seventh in scoring (36.9 points per game) in 2023 and 4th in yards per game (466.6).

This JMU team ranks 62nd in yards per game (400.3) but 77th in scoring offense (27.2). The yardage has been there in four of the six games this season, but the points only followed against Weber State. In conference games, JMU is averaging 413.7 yards per game but just 24.3 points per game. Southern Miss, by comparison, is averaging 405 yards per game but 38 points per league game. Why? The Eagles are 7-for-7 in the red zone with six of the seven drives ending in touchdowns. JMU is 7-for-10 with six touchdowns.

The Dukes are moving the ball fairly well — the Georgia State game being an outlier. They just need to finish drives to take the next step, and both Kennedy and Chesney came to JMU with a history of leading offenses that finish drives well.

Slight improvement in the red zone and fourth downs could turn this “ugly” offense into a team strength. The Dukes aren’t as far off as the scoreboard indicates.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications