Oregon is an 11-1 football team with very few flaws. The Ducks look the part of a national title contender.

So how might JMU, a 21-point road underdog, upset Oregon in the College Football Playoff? JMU faces a stiff test, but Oregon isn’t unbeatable. The Ducks have a loss this season and at times have left Big Ten opponents hang around in tight games.

JMU’s most likely path to an unlikely upset is following Iowa’s blueprint from an 18-16 Oregon win earlier this season.

Bend but don’t break

Iowa gave up over 260 rushing yards to the Ducks, but Oregon’s three red-zone possessions ended in a grand total of 10 points. Iowa allowed about 400 yards, but kept the Ducks to 18 points.

Can JMU hold up in the red zone? The Dukes have allowed red-zone touchdowns on 16 of 31 red-zone possessions this season. That’s solid. JMU often holds teams to FGs once they get inside the 20.

Oregon converts 65.3% of its red-zone trips into TDs. Can JMU bump that down to closer to 50%?

JMU’s defense is the strength of the team. The Dukes’ defensive line is loaded with Power Conference talent and notable size, including 350-pound nose tackle Immanuel Bush. He missed the Sun Belt Championship with injury, but there’s optimism he’ll play against Oregon. If he can’t go, former LSU and Louisiana Tech tackle Kells Bush (315 lbs) takes on a bigger role as the Dukes will split the snaps by committee.

JMU’s linebackers are elite, with Trent Hendrick the Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year. Gannon Weathersby’s health is important, as he’s been tremendous against P4 competition — recording sacks against both UNC and Louisville over the past two seasons. He led JMU with seven tackles against Louisville.

On the back end, JMU’s safeties (Tyler Brown and Jacob Thomas) are among the best in the G5. Elijah Culp and Justin Eaglin are both solid cornerbacks, too. The Dukes’ defense is stout, but Oregon provides a different test.

If JMU can hang tough in the red zone, an upset becomes possible. Oregon will put up yards, but the Dukes need to force the Ducks to take 3s instead of 7s. The defense is good enough to do that.

Roll the dice

Iowa went 3-for-4 on fourth downs in its narrow loss to the Ducks. Bob Chesney loves to go for it on fourth down with 17 attempts this fall, despite blowing out several conference teams and not needing to be aggressive on fourth downs. But the Dukes are converting just 41.2% of fourth-down tries. That’s outside the top 115 nationally.

JMU will need to take chances on fourth-and-medium and fourth-and-short to beat Oregon. JMU isn’t afraid of that, but the Dukes’ execution on fourth down has been worrisome.

If there is one stat to provide JMU with hope, it’s that Oregon is 114th nationally in fourth down defense. Teams are 19-for-29 on fourth downs against the Ducks. JMU needs to take advantage of fourth-down tries. Iowa did, and it nearly led to a Hawkeyes upset.

Sit on the ball … then hit a chunk play

Iowa had two touchdown drives against the Ducks, and both included completions of over 35 yards. That’s even with the Hawkeyes only finishing the game with 138 passing yards.

JMU’s path to victory against Washington State and Troy, two solid defensive teams, included hitting chunk plays when the offense was sputtering. Oregon’s defense puts those two programs to shame, though. The Ducks are elite on the defensive side.

JMU has shown an ability to be explosive, as the Dukes rank eighth nationally with 20 plays of 40 or more yards this season. The Dukes will need to generate explosives to have any chance. Unfortunately, Oregon leads the country in plays of 20+ yards allowed, giving up just 24 all year. The Ducks rarely give up explosives.

Iowa held the ball for about 33 minutes in its matchup with Oregon, keeping the Ducks off the field. JMU, which ranks second nationally in time of possession, will almost certainly try to sit on the ball and shorten the game. But the Dukes also need to take their shots down the field. Oregon’s defense is too good for JMU to sustain four, long touchdown drives without a chunk play. JMU’s best hope of winning is finding the elusive balance between hitting a couple of explosives and winning time of possession.

Iowa did it well, but Dante Moore’s late-game brilliance turned a possible upset into a heartbreaking loss. The Iowa blueprint isn’t foolproof, and it took place in Iowa with a meaningful home field advantage. Oregon is really good!

Alonza Barnett finished wins over Washington State and Troy with fewer than 250 combined passing yards. Yet he also finished those games with multiple explosive touchdowns.

Oregon is stout defensively, but there’s certainly a path where Barnett gets 3-5 deep shots from a relatively clean pocket. He needs to hit them if the Dukes want to surprise the college football world.

Oregon is among the best teams in college football. JMU has a top-25 team. The Dukes will need breaks to go their way to beat the Ducks, but there is a blueprint to keep the game close entering the final 15 minutes.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications