JMU football faces the biggest test of perhaps its existence Saturday, as it faces No. 5 Oregon in the opening round of the College Football Playoff. The Dukes are three-touchdown underdogs against the Ducks for the prime time tile.

How to watch

Kickoff time: 7:30 p.m. ET

TV: TNT and HBO MAX with Bob Wischusen on the call alongside Louis Riddick. Kris Budden and Stormy Buonantony will be handling sideline reporter duties.

Weather: Surprisingly, it might not rain! The chance of showers around 4 p.m. local time is only about 10%, and a mix of sun and clouds is expected. It should be in the mid-to-upper 40s for much of the game. It’s not warm, but it’s not freezing, either.

Opponent preview: Oregon

Record: 11-1, 8-1 Big Ten

Coach: Dan Lanning, 46-7

Top players

Dante Moore, QB: The redshirt sophomore is projected top-10 NFL draft pick, if he declares. He completes over 70% of his passes and has 24 touchdown passes to only six interceptions. He can make every throw in the world, and his accuracy is surreal. He’s a calm player who is nearly impossible to rattle. There’s a reason he’s a future pro. 

Kenyon Sadiq, TE: Another future pro, Sadiq is a matchup nightmare. He’s basically a giant wide receiver, who has five games with at least four catches. He’s hard to cover and can be a force in the running game, too. Great player.

Dillon Thieneman, S: The Purdue transfer is such a good player on the backend of Oregon’s defense. He’s another future pro and has 64 tackles and several pass breakups this year. Oregon has a legitimate top-10 defense in college football. The Ducks are good at every position, and Thieneman’s addition this offseason strengthened a secondary in need of another key player or two.

Key to the Game: Handle the spotlight

Oregon is a national title threat. Beating the Ducks in their place is a HUGE ask. Maybe too big of an ask. JMU keeping the game competitive late into the second half would be meaningful, given the NFL talent the Ducks have. 

To keep it close, JMU needs to win the turnover battle and try to keep Oregon’s explosive offense off the field. It’s easier said than done, but there’s a path where JMU keeps this close. It starts with taking care of the football and holding the Ducks to red-zone field goals. Again, this is easier said than done, but JMU has future P4 players and pros of its own. The Dukes aren’t bad, but they’re also not a top-five team. It would be an upset if they win. 

For JMU to have a shot late, the Dukes need to withstand the early onslaught of noise and energy from Oregon’s first home playoff game. If JMU can get through its first few possessions with the game still tight, it becomes a little easier to block out the environment and play football. The danger area for JMU comes if Oregon jumps out to a 14-0 lead and forces the Dukes to abandon the run and try to sling the ball around against an elite defense. If JMU can handle the major spotlight in the early moments of the game, the Dukes have the defense and running game to make this dicey for the Ducks late.

Score prediction

I love JMU’s coaching staff, defense, and running game. The passing game is a concern, especially against Oregon. Even if the Ducks sell out against the run, can Alonza Barnett beat Oregon with his arm? JMU managed 93 passing yards in the Sun Belt title against Troy, and Oregon ranks third nationally in fewest passing plays of 10-plus yards allowed this season. The Dukes will try to run the ball, but if you can’t effectively move the ball in the air in 2025, you’re not beating a top-5 team on the road. ABIII needs his best to give JMU a shot.

Oregon has the more complete team, and the Ducks are at home. There’s a path to a tight game, but there’s also a path to an Oregon blowout. Give me something in the middle. 

The pick: Oregon 30, JMU 13

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications