Playing a Power Four opponent is a big deal for Group of Five teams.

Beating a Power Conference team helps everything. It boosts recruiting. It bolsters fan support. And in 2024, it gives teams a legitimate chance to qualify for the 12-team College Football Playoff.

While JMU hasn’t exactly looked like a playoff team through two games, the season is still young and the Dukes’ roster is loaded with talent. A win over UNC on Saturday would immediately thrust JMU into the early College Football Playoff conversations.

If the Dukes win, they’d join UNLV (Houston and Kansas), Memphis (Florida State), Northern Illinois (Notre Dame), Toledo (Mississippi State), and Georgia State (Vanderbilt) as Group of Five teams with wins over Power Conference competition.

JMU can learn quite a bit from those six G5 over P4 wins. Through the early stages of the 2024 season, there’s a formula for how G5 teams can upset P4 foes. Let’s break it down ahead of JMU’s clash with UNC.

Win the Turnover Battle

Winning the turnover battle is one of the most important metrics across every level of football. This is especially true for teams trying to pull upsets.

Of the six games this season in which a Group of Five team beat a Power Conference opponent, the Group of Five team won the turnover battle — had a positive turnover margin — in all six games. Across the six games, the G5 teams were +9 in turnover margin, and none of the G5 teams turned the ball over more than once.

UNLV even had some of the craziest positive fumble luck you’ll ever see in its win over Kansas.

I cannot stop watching this video. Over and over and over again. pic.twitter.com/ksEP0e7hdy

— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) September 14, 2024

Last year, JMU won the turnover battle 1-0 against UVA (the Dukes were also robbed of a fumble recovery on replay review) and blocked a punt for a touchdown. Former head coach Curt Cignetti viewed blocked kicks as turnovers, so JMU did well against the Cavaliers in this category en route to a 36-35 win.

In 2024, the Dukes have done well to take care of the football through two games. JMU didn’t turn the ball over against Gardner-Webb, and it lost a pair of turnovers against Charlotte. Turning the ball over once a game is a respectable number.

Defensively, JMU’s 2024 defense looks opportunistic. The Dukes forced three turnovers against Charlotte and two against Gardner-Webb, and their turnover margin of +1.5 per game ranks 14th nationally. JMU is tied for 26th nationally with five takeaways, despite only playing two games. The Dukes are tied with Penn State and Navy as the nation’s leaders in turnovers forced among teams that have only played two games.

North Carolina hasn’t forced turnovers consistently this season, as the Tar Heels have three turnovers forced and they’ve given the ball away three times.
Winning the turnover battle is doable.

Possess the Ball

In this year’s six Group of Five over Power Four upsets, the Group of Five team won the time of possession battle in each win.

Toledo held the ball for an extraordinary 37 minutes and four seconds in its blowout win over Mississippi State. Memphis dominated time of possession in its 20-12 victory over Florida State, holding the ball for 36 minutes and 21 seconds of the 60-minute game. Northern Illinois held the ball for 34 minutes and 38 seconds of its upset over Notre Dame.

Holding onto the football usually signals that a team is stringing together decent drives and letting its defense rest. It’s often a key to victory for G5 over P4 upsets.

Against Gardner-Webb, the Dukes did a particularly poor job of possessing the ball. JMU held the ball for just 26 minutes of the game, as the Dukes held the ball for less than half the game in each of their first two contests. They rank 107th nationally in average time of possession.

North Carolina ranks 71st in average time of possession, so possessing the ball is not a major strength for UNC. JMU can win the battle, but it will take a more efficient offensive performance than the first two weeks of the season.

JMU maintaining possession is a key to Saturday’s game with North Carolina. Can the Dukes keep running back Omarion Hampton on the sideline or will their defense have to try to tackle the elite runner for 30+ minutes? That’s a recipe for disaster.

Start Fast

This key is fairly obvious, but there aren’t a lot of Group of Five teams making massive comebacks against Power Conference opponents. The biggest deficit faced during the six G5 over P4 wins this season was 11 points, as UNLV trailed Kansas by 11 late in the first half. The Rebels never trailed by more than four points in the second half, though.

UNLV never trailed in its win over Houston, opening up a 27-0 lead before winning 27-7. Memphis never trailed Florida State, going up 20-3 before holding on to win 20-12. Toledo also never trailed, as it actually led Mississippi State 35-3 at one point of its 41-17 victory.

Got them saying "Holy Toledo" 🚀#TeamToledo | @TuckGleason | @NJerjuan pic.twitter.com/AYx927Nn4m

— Toledo Football (@ToledoFB) September 15, 2024

Northern Illinois trailed Notre Dame by just one point entering the fourth quarter, and a field goal put the Huskies up 16-14 with 31 seconds left. They won by that score. NIU never trailed by more than seven points.

Georgia State led Vanderbilt 22-10 entering the fourth quarter, and it never trailed the Commodores by more than a field goal in its 36-32 victory.

Starting fast against a Power Conference opponent is crucial. It’s really hard to erase significant road deficits against competent opponents, and trying to erase a double-digit lead against UNC would be a huge test for Alonza Barnett and company.

JMU’s best chance to beat North Carolina is if it jumps out to an early lead or at least keeps the game within a touchdown throughout the duration of the second half. JMU needs to control Saturday’s game to pull an upset.

That’s a contrast from how JMU has played this season, as the Dukes are averaging a woeful 4.5 points scored per first half. That needs to change Saturday in Chapel Hill.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications