Undefeated JMU (4-0) hits the road for its first conference game of the season, and the Dukes will face a ULM team surpassing expectations through four games. The Warhawks, behind a decent defense, are 3-1 and 1-0 in Sun Belt play.

Still, JMU is expected to win the road game, which kicks off at 7 p.m. ET and will air on ESPNU. Betting odds give the Dukes a significant edge in the game, largely because of ULM’s subpar offense.

The Betting Odds

ULM’s offense ranks 116th in ESPN’s offensive efficiency rankings, a legitimate concern. The Warhawks’ defense, however, ranks 46th. They can defend respectably well, so JMU dropping 60+ points doesn’t seem all that likely. The total this week doesn’t top 50.

The spread: JMU -15.5 on DraftKings

The total: 48 points

The moneyline: JMU -650, ULM +470

JMU is 3-1 against the spread this fall, covering in every FBS game. The Dukes are a perfect 2-0 against the spread on the road, beating Charlotte 30-7 as a 7-point favorite and taking down UNC 70-50 as a 10-point underdog.

Picks and predictions

I’m taking JMU to cover the 15.5 points. While ULM should be proud of its 3-1 start, and the Warhawks look decent on defense, they’ve played bad offenses outside of Texas. And the Longhorns put up just under 500 yards of offense and scored 50+ points.

ULM performed well against Jackson State, UAB, and Troy. UAB and Troy rank 94th and 92nd respectively in ESPN’s offensive efficiency metric. JMU checks in at No. 64, as the Dukes are reasonably efficient but also highly explosive.

The Dukes average 15.34 yards per completion, the ninth-best mark in the country. They also average a respectable 5.25 yards per rush, the fourth-best mark in the Sun Belt. JMU’s ability to generate chunk plays could put this game out of reach quickly.

Troy and UAB rank 111th and 99th nationally in points per game. JMU? The Dukes rank 12th, scoring 44 points per game. While ULM’s defense looked good against subpar competition, will it hold up against JMU’s explosive attack? UNC’s defense has stood tall outside of the JMU loss, holding its other four opponents to 21 points or fewer. The Tar Heels simply didn’t have an answer for Alonza Barnett and the Dukes.

On the other side of the ball, ULM is averaging less than 250 yards per game. The Warhawks have a bottom 10 offense in college football, with subpar blocking, inconsistent QB play, and a lack of standout skill players compared to Sun Belt peers.

JMU’s defense has held its two Group of Five opponents to a combined 14 points. The Warhawks have struggled to move the ball consistently, which could lead to a number of punts in this one. ULM ranks 112th nationally in third-down conversions, moving the chains just 32% of the time.

ULM’s 3-1 record looks good on paper, but there’s a significant gap between these two programs. JMU looks like a complete G5 team on both sides of the ball, while ULM is rebuilding and still needs growth on offense before it can be considered a Sun Belt West threat.

Even if this game goes under the total, a 31-10 JMU win would still cover the spread by nearly six points.

The pick: JMU -15.5

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications