JMU football (8-4) faces Western Kentucky (8-5) on Wednesday with a chance to secure the first bowl win in program history. It’s a big deal for the Dukes, who hope to accomplish the feat with their starting QB and primary backup out with injuries.

Alonza Barnett suffered a leg injury in the season finale against Marshall, while Washington transfer Dylan Morris dealt with an arm injury for most of the year. That leaves the Dukes with veteran backup Billy Atkins and true freshman JC Evans. Atkins will start, while Evans is expected to see the field as a power runner.

Fortunately for JMU, Western Kentucky’s rushing defense is a major weakness. The Hilltoppers allowed 386 rushing yards to Jacksonville State in the CUSA championship game, having no answer to the Gamecocks’ running game. If you can’t stop the run, it’s hard to win games against competent opponents.

What are the odds?

Spread: JMU -7

Total: 50.5 points

Moneyline: JMU -260, WKU +210

The Dukes have been favored in every game against a G5 opponent this season, but they’ve lost four of those games straight up. JMU hasn’t, however, lost a game to a team outside the Sun Belt.

Trust the Dukes?

I think JMU can win the game, as the Dukes are motivated to win the first bowl game in the program’s history. But can they cover the spread with their third-string quarterback? I have major questions.

Atkins has one start in his career and he was shaky, throwing four interceptions in a loss to Marshall in 2022. He’s older now and this defense is worse than Marshall’s dominant 2022 unit, but the Dukes have fallen short of expectations numerous times this season as a favorite against a G5 opponent. I’m not in love with either side in this game, but if I had to pick a bet, I’d lean with WKU +7.

The Dukes might be slightly more motivated, but they have major questions at the most important position on the field. The Hilltoppers, meanwhile, will have starter Caden Veltkamp available. He’s in the transfer portal but plans to play Wednesday for one final time in a WKU uniform. He helped lead his team to a comeback win over ODU in a bowl game last season.

Best bet: WKU +7

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications