Bob Chesney is among the hottest names in college football coaching, and Wayne Knight is among the most productive FBS running backs. Sound familiar?

Sadly for JMU fans, those two are starring at UCLA this year rather than dominating Sun Belt opposition. But despite significant offseason departures to UCLA and elsewhere, JMU football hasn’t stepped back — at least not yet.

The Dukes are 4-0 under new coach Billy Napier, and they’ve done so in style. They ground out a Week 1 win over Liberty, the current CUSA favorite. They dropped 87 on Wagner to set a program record for points, and they followed that effort up with consecutive double-digit road wins over San Diego State and Old Dominion.

So … could JMU football go back to the College Football Playoff?

While far from an exact science, ESPN’s FPI gives the Dukes the second-best chance among Group of Six teams to make the field, at 28.4%. Only Boise State (33.6%) has a better chance entering Week 5. 

Those numbers are a little silly and made up, but it’s clear that the Dukes are one of the early G6 teams again.

Given JMU’s strength of schedule — it’s outside the top 115 nationally — it’s hard to see the Dukes getting into the field with a loss, however. Anything can happen, of course, but the lack of possible marquee results puts JMU at a disadvantage compared to a few other Group of Six contenders. An undefeated record feels close to necessity. 

Boise State, for example, can point to an 18-point win over Memphis as a signature victory. Similarly, a 7-point road loss to Oregon doesn’t hurt the Broncos’ case either. Those results, plus a blowout road win over a decent Western Michigan team, give Boise State credibility that it could hang in a playoff game against a top-five opponent.

Interestingly, the Group of Six playoff representative this season doesn’t need to win its conference to receive an automatic bid. The highest-ranked Group of Six team, regardless of whether they’ve won a league title, will get into the postseason field.

This gives the committee extra freedom. If they decide a team like Boise State passes the “eye test,” a two- or three-loss Broncos team (with wins over Memphis and Western Michigan and a close loss to Oregon) could actually get the bid, especially with a decent strength of schedule. If JMU is 12-1 but has no notable wins, it’s easy to imagine a world where a two-loss Boise State jumps the Dukes into the field.

The strength of schedule discussion will linger as long as the Dukes stay in the playoff conversation. I’m still highly skeptical that the committee will stick 13-0 JMU into the field with a lack of notable wins, but if JMU keeps winning and enough other contenders lose, the Dukes can certainly earn the bid.

JMU’s best chance to get back to the playoff is going undefeated with several convincing wins.

That scenario is actually quite plausible. As it currently stands, JMU would likely be a double-digit favorite in every remaining game on its schedule, including a home Sun Belt title game.

Reaching 13-0 isn’t outside the realm of possibility. ESPN’s SP+, a forward-looking metric, puts the Dukes 36th nationally. No other Sun Belt team is inside the top 75. Louisiana, which is not on the Dukes’ schedule, ranks second in the league at No. 80.

There’s a long way to go this season, but the Dukes are in prime position to threaten for a playoff bid in Napier’s first season.

September went about as perfectly as JMU’s new coach could’ve dreamed. Now, those near-perfect results have JMU fans dreaming big yet again.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications