If the season ended today, both JMU men’s and women’s basketball would make the NCAA Tournament, as they lead the Sun Belt. To guarantee inclusion into the field, both teams will need to go 2-0 in Pensacola, Florida, to win the SBC Tournament.

It’s quite possible, as both teams will enter as top contenders, with the women’s team the obvious SBC favorite. If both teams make the field, here’s a look at where “bracketologists” predict the teams being seeded and who they might play in March Madness.

JMU women’s basketball

The Dukes are on the fringe of at-large conversations, although the team’s NET ranking of 55 and lack of quality conference wins — the Sun Belt is weak compared to many other leagues — likely means they’d be on the outside looking in if they can’t finish the job in the Sun Belt Tournament. Fortunately for JMU, two wins in Pensacola will punch their ticket into the dance, where a No. 12 seed (or better) could be waiting.

ESPN, No. 12 seed vs. Michigan State (Knoxville Regional) – Playing a Power Conference team at a neutral site is an ideal situation for JMU, as Tennessee fans anxiously awaiting the winning team in the next round would almost certainly pull for the upset. JMU matches up decently well with the Spartans, who are a fringe top-25 team with eight losses, including three in their past four games. The Dukes would need to play well, but they could pull an upset.

Her Hoop Stats, No. 12 seed vs. Michigan State (Knoxville Regional) – Bring on the Spartans?

NCAA.com, No. 13 seed vs. Ohio State – Again?? The Dukes played Ohio State in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, losing 80-66. In that matchup, JMU opened up a 26-14 lead after a quarter before fading over the final 30 minutes. This Ohio State team isn’t quite as dangerous as the 2022-23 squad and the 2024-25 version of JMU is better than the team a couple years back, but the Buckeyes are unbeaten at home and the game would be held in Columbus.

JMU men’s basketball

Unlike last season, the Dukes aren’t near the at-large conversation, but they’ll only need two wins in Pensacola to make the NCAA Tournament. Current projections have the Dukes winning the Sun Belt because they sit atop the regular season standings, and most projections available list them as a No. 14 seed, should they make the dance.

ESPN, No. 14 seed vs. Kentucky – This would be a fun one for the Dukes, as Preston Spradlin began his coaching career as a graduate assistant and director of basketball operations with Kentucky from 2009-2014. The matchup would be particularly challenging, as Kentucky ranks sixth nationally in offensive efficiency. The Dukes are outside the top-200 nationally in defensive efficiency.

CBS, No. 14 seed vs. St. John’s – Rick Pitino’s St. John’s team would be a decent draw for the Dukes. Sure, the Red Storm are currently 25-4 and rank second nationally in defensive efficiency, but they struggle to make the 3-point shot consistently. They’re making just 30.2% of their shots from beyond the arc, which ranks 338th nationally. A poor shooting night could keep JMU in the game.

Rocco Miller, No. 14 seed vs. St. John’s – Miller is another bracketologist who has JMU facing St. John’s to open the tournament.

ESPN researcher Kevin Pulsifier, No. 14 seed vs. Michigan – The Wolverines have two highly efficient 7-footers, making this matchup a scary one for a JMU team largely reliant on its guard play. The Dukes lack quality depth in the low post, which could be a concern once Elijah Hutchins-Everett (11.1 points and 5.7 rebounds per game) goes to the bench for rest.

USA Today, No. 14 seed vs. Wisconsin – Run it back? JMU upset Wisconsin in the first round last season. Could the teams meet again to open the tournament? This is a more complete Wisconsin team, and the Badgers are in better form this year than last. On the plus side for JMU, Wisconsin’s defense rarely blocks shots or creates steals, relying instead on guarding well and limiting offensive rebounds. If JMU’s guards caught fire, it’s possible the Dukes could upset the Badgers twice in two seasons.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications