Jacob Dobbs celebrating
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JMU Sports Mailbag: Could a 12-1 JMU Beat Out 12-1 Boise State for a CFP Spot?

We missed the podcast last week, so we figured the time was right for a JMU sports mailbag. Thanks for your questions, especially those about alcohol-fueled fights.

If the Dukes keep it close but lose to a Louisville team that ends up being quite good, can a one loss-JMU outmatch a Boise team that also only one loss to a good Notre Dame team? — Andrew

Helluva question, man. This is a fun thought exercise.

My lame answer is, it depends. Let’s run through a few scenarios.

1) Let’s say Louisville and Notre Dame are both similarly ranked playoff teams. If JMU goes 12-1 with a league title and a loss to Louisville and Boise State goes 12-1 with a loss to Notre Dame, there’s a chance both G5 teams sneak into the field, especially if there’s chaos in the Big 12. Remember, the G5 doesn’t have one automatic berth. There are automatic berths for the five highest-ranked conference champions. That will almost certainly include the SEC and Big Ten champs, but it’s possible the ACC or Big 12 misses out if a pair of G5 teams have incredible seasons and those leagues beat each other up. It’s also possible one of JMU or Boise State would earn an at-large spot if they go 12-1 with narrow losses to P4 powers.

2) If the Dukes and Broncos are both 12-1 but there’s only one bid up for grabs, who gets in? That’ll come down to metrics. Who played the harder schedule? On paper, the schedules are set up similarly. If USF turns out to be a great team and Washington State stinks, however, then Boise State could have a clear nonconference edge. Similarly, if the Sun Belt has a down season and the Mountain West looks solid in nonconference games, Boise State will have an edge. The reverse is also possible. If the teams have the same record and only one can make the playoffs, the committee will compare advanced metrics to help make a decision. Which team is rated higher by ESPN’s SP+, FPI, Sagarin, etc?

3) The resumes are nearly identical, including strength of schedule, strength of record, etc. In this case, Boise likely receives the nod because of the program’s reputation. The Broncos are known as an elite G5 program and have been for years, and the committee will struggle to keep them out of the field if they’re 12-1 with a loss to only Notre Dame.

In short, if JMU fans want the Dukes to have a good chance of making the CFP with a loss, they should root for Boise State (and Memphis, Tulane, UNLV) to take an early loss this season. The more G5 chaos, the better chance a one-loss team will emerge.

The Broncos open the season as the frontrunner to make the playoffs among G5 programs. For that narrative to change, Boise State needs to take a loss or two before November. It’s going to be hard to overtake Boise State if it only loses to Notre Dame.

What was your favorite away game to travel to during your college days? — AJ

I liked making the Delaware and Villanova trips.

Neither school took football too seriously, but both had winning traditions at the FCS level. The games were good and the crowds were reasonably engaged. Everyone there wanted to be there — you don’t accidentally stumble into a Villanova football game. If you’re at those games, you want to be at those games, but the outcome isn’t life or death, either. Sometimes it’s fun to enjoy a game where the opposing fan bases don’t really hate each other. Matchups with ACC teams and App State are great fun, but JMU-Delaware is a matchup I’ll always enjoy because it’s not the biggest game or rivalry of the day but it’s still two quality programs with good players. 

I’m excited that Delaware is moving to the FBS and the teams are renewing that series.

If you were in a bar fight and only had one guy to back you up. Which guy would you choose? 2016 Gage Steele or 2024 Jacob Dobbs. — JMU Hater

Are you sure you hate JMU? Referencing 2016 Dukes has me thinking you’re a die-hard JMU supporter now.

As for the question, hmmmmm. Give me Steele.

Dobbs is a beast and played well during his one season with the Dukes, but Steele was an old-school linebacker. The man wore a neck roll! He finished his career with 354 tackles, including two 100+ tackle seasons. Steele played in at least 11 games in all four seasons in Harrisonburg, making him a durable linebacker with the best name on the planet. If I’m meeting someone and they introduce themselves as Gage Steele, I’m immediately terrified. Dobbs was a monster at Holy Cross and JMU, but I’ll take Steele in a bar fight any day of the week.

Realistic expectations for men’s basketball in Year 2 of Spradlin? — Jeff Bourne’s burner

Compete for the Sun Belt title.

It’s anyone’s guess how the group will gel together, but the Dukes added enough talent (especially on defense) to be among the best three teams in the SBC. Anything less than Sun Belt title contention and 20-ish wins will be a disappointment for this group, especially with freshmen Christian Brown and Preston Fowler capable of contributing immediately — and potentially becoming Power Conference portal targets in the offseason. The Dukes have the pieces to win, and it’s nearly impossible to maintain roster consistency from season to season as a mid-major program. The time to win with this group is now.

Note: We received a few notes about suggested walkout songs for the football team. I’ve long said my general lack of music knowledge makes me unqualified to weigh in on the issue. I promise all of you have better music suggestions than me. Please, don’t give me the AUX!

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications

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