JMU football’s offense is playing with fire.

The Dukes escaped Atlanta with a win this past weekend, beating Georgia State, 14-7. But the offense has a few flaws worthy of examination. For a team with Sun Belt title and College Football Playoff dreams, Saturday’s offensive performance wasn’t good enough.

That starts with the passing game, which racked up a lowly 74 yards on 22 attempts.

“It’s not any one thing, I think it’s a mix of a bunch of things that all happen at different times,” coach Bob Chesney said Monday.

My biggest gripe with the passing game, especially Saturday, actually isn’t the lack of yardage or completion percentage. It’s the average depth of target, which was 4 yards against Georgia State and is 7.1 for quarterback Alonza Barnett III this fall.

On the season, 24.2% of Barnett’s pass attempts have traveled 10 yards or more. In 2024, Barnett tossed 31.2% of his passes over 10 yards, and he did his best work on deeper passes. Of Barnett’s 26 touchdown passes a season ago, 19 came on throws going over 10 yards in the air.

In 2024, Barnett was perhaps the best intermediate passer in the country. He was the only FBS QB to throw 10 or more touchdowns and zero interceptions on passes traveling between 10 and 19 air yards. This season, he’s attempted just 14 passes in that distance, completing nine of them for 171 yards (12.2 yards per attempt!) and a touchdown. His Pro Football Focus grade of 85.4 on those throws is tied with Old Dominion’s Colton Joseph, the frontrunner for Sun Belt Player of the Year.

“We’ve got to be able to throw the ball down the field,” offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy said this week. “At times, [Georgia State] was loading the box. You have to be able to push the ball downfield. They go hand in hand, like I’ve said. If we can move the ball through the air, it’s only going to help the run game. Just like the run game is going to help the pass game where if you’re running the ball effectively, you’re going to get one-on-ones across the board.”

Bingo.

This team goes from very good to elite if the passing game improves. 

The current version of this JMU offense isn’t all bad, to be abundantly clear. JMU’s elite defense, coupled with an emphasis on the short passing game and running game, has helped JMU rank in the top five nationally in time of possession.

On the surface, holding onto the ball looks great. Long drives can wear out opposing defenses, and keep your defense fresh. JMU has outscored its three Group of Five opponents 49-10 after halftime. There’s real value in holding onto the ball, and this team has proven capable of overwhelming opponents over 60 minutes.

But time of possession isn’t solely an offensive stat. The defense getting off the field plays an important role in winning that battle. Unfortunately in JMU’s case, so does a lack of explosive plays.

The Dukes have put together some lengthy drives, but they’ve also failed to generate the big plays that lead to quick points, especially through the air. JMU ranks 125th nationally in passing plays over 10 yards and 118th in passing plays of 20+ yards. The running game is a much different story, ranking 8th nationally in rushes over 10+ yards.

JMU’s rushing offense is explosive and efficient. The passing offense ranks 120th nationally in efficiency. That’s concerning through five games.

If JMU can sprinkle in explosive pass plays with a superb defense and running game, the Dukes can realistically go 12-1. This team is that good. But shortening games with long possessions increases the importance of each drive. JMU could benefit from lengthening games and letting its talent advantage shine through over a larger sample size of possessions.

That’s why I think it’s past time for the Dukes to take deep shots. The Dukes, whether it’s a change in play calling or QB decision making, need to trust their wide receivers down the field and try to expand their offense.

Of JMU’s transfer wide receivers, both Nick DeGennaro, Isaiah Alston, and Smoke Collins were deep ball threats at their previous stops. In Alston’s best season with Army in 2021, he was targeted 14 times on deep balls and caught eight passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns. Just last season, DeGennaro was targeted 33 times on passes traveling over 10 air yards. He caught 12 of the targets for a whopping 348 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 10.5 yards per target!

Time of possession is nice. Limiting risky throws and sacks is a strength of this offense. Eventually, however, if the Dukes want to win a championship, they need to fire the ball downfield. Barnett and the receivers are capable.

Let it rip!

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications