JMU football plays a Tuesday night game. Ahhh the joys of Group of Five football!

The Dukes (6-1, 4-0 SBC) receive a national spotlight for a weird, early week game against an underrated Texas State team (3-4, 0-3 SBC) struggling to win one single Sun Belt game. It’s a strange spot for the Dukes, who are looking for their sixth consecutive victory.

How to watch

Kickoff time: 8 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN2

Weather: The forecasted temperature at kickoff is a comfortable 75 degrees, although winds are expected to be in the 20 miles per hour range with higher gusts. Winds could play a factor, especially in the kicking game.

Opponent preview: Texas State

Record: 3-4, 0-3 SBC

Coach: G.J. Kinne, 31-16 overall, 19-14 Texas State

Top players

Brad Jackson, QB: This dude rules, and he thrives in Kinne’s high-octane system. The redshirt freshman is averaging 255 passing yards and 59 rushing yards per game. He has 17 total touchdowns on the year, too. He’s a candidate for Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year in his first season as a starter.

Beau Sparks, WR: The Sun Belt’s second leading receiver with 674 yards, Sparks is the No. 1 beneficiary of an explosive passing attack. He has over 300 yards after the catch, as he’s dangerous with the ball in his hands. JMU’s defense likely can’t take Sparks out of the game, but can the Dukes slow him down?

Kalil Alexander, DE: The Bobcats aren’t known for defense, but Alexander is one of the best pass rushers in the Sun Belt. He has a team-high three sacks, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. His PFF pass rush grade is about 80 this season, which is great. In 2024, his pass rush grade of 91.3 ranked 10th nationally. He can get after the QB.

Key to the Game: Start fast

JMU’s road woes are well-documented. The Dukes have played much better at home than on the road under Bob Chesney. That’s especially true in conference games.

In G5 road games this season, the Dukes have started quite slowly. They were tied 10-10 with Liberty at halftime and trailed Georgia State 7-0 at the break.

Texas State scores more than 35 points per game and often jumps out to hot starts. The Dukes are at their best running the football and playing stiff defense. That plan works best when the game is close or the score favors the Dukes. They’re not built to erase big deficits. A fast start is critical Tuesday on the road. JMU can’t afford a sluggish opening 30 minutes.

Score prediction

JMU is solid on both sides of the ball, while Texas State has legitimate defensive woes. But Texas State is way better than its 3-4 record suggests. The Bobcats have lost their three SBC games by a combined 11 points with two of the defeats coming in overtime.

They could be 6-1. They aren’t, of course, but they aren’t a bad team. JMU needs a solid showing to leave San Marcos with a win. Look for JMU’s offense to take advantage of the Bobcats’ porous defense, but Jackson and Sparks will put up points for the home team.

The pick: JMU 38, Texas State 28

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications