It’s March! It’s the best (and perhaps most stressful) time of the year to be a college basketball fan. Will the Dukes be in the dance in a couple of weeks? We’ll find out soon, with JMU’s women’s basketball team holding a much better chance of qualifying for the NCAA Tournament than the men.

Here’s a closer look at each team’s path to making the most important event in college hoops.

Women

Regular-season recap: JMU finished 23-8 overall and 14-4 in the league, which was only good for the No. 4 seed! Great year for Sun Belt women’s basketball.

The Dukes’ highlights included wins over Boston College, Wisconsin, and Virginia Tech.

The path: The Dukes could open with Marshall, a matchup that favors JMU. A win on Saturday moves JMU into a Sunday showdown with top-seeded Georgia Southern. That’d be electric. A championship game against either Troy or Arkansas State would likely await.

The likelihood: The Dukes have as good a team as any in the Sun Belt, but the top five teams are all solid. The top four are good enough to pull an NCAA Tournament upset. We’ll give JMU a 35% chance of making the Big Dance. The Dukes have the most talented roster on paper, but Georgia Southern and Arkansas State are among the top threats and have beaten the Dukes this season. Anything can happen in Pensacola, and JMU’s persistent issues handling a full-court press keep us from putting the Dukes’ odds over 50%.

If they get there: The Dukes could legitimately win an NCAA Tournament game. They’re a top-50 caliber team, and one of the nation’s most dangerous mid-majors. The Dukes have a Power Conference roster playing in the Sun Belt. They could earn an 11 or 12 seed and draw a reasonable opening matchup.

Men

Regular-season recap: JMU finished 17-14 overall and 9-9 in the league. It’s not great, but the Dukes were below .500 overall and 4-8 in the SBC not too long ago. A great February salvaged the season, and created optimism for 2026-27. Before then, however, the Dukes have an outside chance to make a push for the Sun Belt crown.

The path: Win six games in six days. Easy!

The Dukes open with the winner of Louisiana vs. Georgia State. After the winnable Wednesday matchup, JMU’s path would go as follows: Southern Miss, Texas State, App State, and Troy before reaching an unknown opponent in the title game.

None of the opponents are all that frightening, it’s the path that’s scary. The Sun Belt is a balanced league this season, with anyone capable of winning nightly. But winning six in a row without an obvious talent edge in most games coupled with no rest means JMU’s season likely won’t go deep into March.

The likelihood: Very, very low! They have to win six games in six days, which is absurdly hard. It’s tough enough to win six in a row, but even if the Dukes win three straight they’re going to be battling tired legs for the final three games against top-end league competition. It would require a minor miracle to win six games in six days, especially given JMU’s lack of dominance throughout the season. The Dukes will need a lot of breaks to make a deep tournament run. If it happens, it’ll be one of the most memorable moments in recent JMU basketball history.

If they get there: JMU would probably be a 16 seed, with an outside chance of getting a 15 seed. If the Dukes make the NCAA Tournament, they’ll be a massive underdog to open the event.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications