JMU made the College Football Playoff out of the Sun Belt a season ago, but the Dukes making the 12-team field masks a budding storyline about the Group of Six league.

It might be getting passed by.

I share this concern as a Sun Belt supporter. I love the “Fun Belt.” JMU leaving the CAA for the Sun Belt is one of the best things to happen to the football program in recent decades. Playing App State, Marshall, and ODU annually? Sign me up.

But are the 2022 and 2023 versions of the Sun Belt gone?

A Sun Belt decline

In 2022, Marshall topped Notre Dame, Georgia Southern upset Nebraska, and App State won at Texas A&M. The following season, there’s a case to be made that JMU was the best team in the Group of Five but NCAA rules kept the Dukes out of a New Year’s Six game.

Between regional rivalries and on-field success, no G5 league had it better.

But in 2024 and 2025, the league has taken a step back, and the numbers reflect that.

I’m not a huge fan of ESPN’s Football Power Index given its bias toward Power Conference programs, especially in the early stages of a season, but we’ll use it to explain a broad point since its end-of-season rankings aren’t too shabby.

In 2022, the average final FPI ranking of a Sun Belt team was 78.7. In 2025, that ballooned to 95.6. And that’s with JMU finishing 27th in 2025 compared to 61st in 2022. Even with the Dukes pulling the number down, it still nearly topped 100.

Perhaps the biggest issue here is the lack of obvious strength atop the league, which goes hand-in-hand with the lack of perception-altering wins. Where was the Sun Belt’s signature win in 2025?

In 2022, the league had wins over Notre Dame and Texas A&M! National outlets paid attention. Was ODU beating a bad Virginia Tech team a needle-mover a season ago? Not quite.

In 2025, it was the American getting those big wins. USF beat Florida and blew out Boise State in Week 1 on national TV. To a lesser extent, Memphis beat Arkansas, and Tulane beat Duke and Northwestern. North Texas demolished a Washington State team that still carries P4 weight despite being left out of the latest round of realignment.

The sheer volume of P4 and P4-adjacent wins for the conference’s best teams built a perception that the American was the G5 darling. That’s why two-loss Tulane had a better ranking than one-loss JMU in the playoff field.

If not for an epic ACC meltdown crowning Duke the champion, JMU would not have made the CFP despite going 12-1 and undefeated in league play. That’s directly related to the Sun Belt’s rapid loss of national respect.

Which G6 league will rise above the rest?

Will marquee wins be an issue in 2026? The league’s projected top seven teams by FPI are JMU, ODU, Southern Miss, Troy, Louisiana, Georgia Southern, and Marshall. Here are the P4 matchups for those teams:

JMU: None
ODU: at Virginia Tech
Southern Miss: at Auburn
Troy: at Missouri
Louisiana: at USC
Georgia Southern: at Clemson, vs. Houston
Marshall: at Penn State

Let’s contrast that to the top seven teams in the American:

Tulane: at Duke, at Kansas State
ECU: at Alabama
Navy: vs. Notre Dame
South Florida: None
Memphis: None, but plays UNLV and Boise State
UTSA: at Texas
Army: None

Fortunately for Sun Belt supporters, the American’s chances for signature wins look more limited this year. Alabama, Notre Dame and Texas aren’t nearly the same as playing slumping Florida, and Tulane doesn’t get either of its P4 opponents at home this fall. Those high-profile P4 games will drastically help those potential contenders with strength of schedule, though. JMU doesn’t have a top-15 team on its schedule pulling up what’s expected to be a weak SOS.

The new-look Pac-12 might be the league with the inside track to a playoff bid. Boise State plays Oregon and Memphis in the season’s first two weeks. San Diego State faces UCLA and JMU. Texas State gets Texas and UTSA. Fresno State opens with USC. If Boise State beats Memphis and stays relatively competitive against Oregon, it’s easy to see how the Broncos could become the G6 frontrunner by October.

Marquee nonconference wins aren’t just victories over P4 teams, either. Last season, the Sun Belt went 2-6 against the American Conference during the regular season.

Arkansas State plays at Memphis in Week 1. App State visits ECU in Week 2, and ODU hosts the Pirates in Week 3. Southern Miss and South Alabama both play at Tulane. Can any of those results go in the Dukes’ favor? It’d carry a good bit of weight if at least one or two of those games favor the SBC, but only ODU looks to be a likely favorite.

Power at the top matters

The American’s success in 2025 stems largely from its flagship brands winning. Memphis, USF, and Tulane spend a ton of money on football. They have passionate fanbases and are eyeing P4 conferences as the next round of realignment looms around 2030.

They delivered with big wins a season ago. So did Navy.

The Sun Belt’s flagship football programs are probably some combination of JMU, App State, Marshall, Troy, and Louisiana. Other programs can work into that mix, as Old Dominion has massive potential in a fertile recruiting area and Arkansas State has found plenty of Sun Belt football success.

In 2025, App State, Marshall, Louisiana, and Troy went a combined 24-28.

The Sun Belt’s parity has been a negative in the CFP race. Wacky results made for a lot of bowl-eligible squads in 2024 and 2025, but that doesn’t move the needle as it relates to the CFP. It’s actually better to have a front-loaded conference and a clear bottom tier when it comes to boosting teams into playoff contention. The committee values top-25 caliber wins, not wins over 6-6 teams.

In 2025, five teams from the American won nine or more games. Only two in the SBC accomplished that feat. In 2022, four SBC teams won nine or more games, and that doesn’t include a solid 8-3 JMU.

In theory, it doesn’t actually matter which handful of teams finish with nine wins or more for the league’s perception. But can a team like ULM get there? What about Georgia State?

Given the financial resources and cultural commitment to football, it’s more likely that teams like JMU, Marshall, App State, Troy, Louisiana, and Old Dominion are the programs capable of reaching the nine-win threshold regularly.

If the league wants to get back to its 2022 and 2023 peak in 2026 and beyond, it’ll be up to the conference’s name-brand programs to carry the load.

And if the Sun Belt’s national perception doesn’t soon rise, some of those flagship teams will start mapping their exit plan for when realignment comes knocking again in a few years.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications