Image courtesy of UVA Athletics
By Bennett Conlin
Editor’s note: Thanks to Three Notch’d Brewing, which has locations in both Charlottesville and Harrisonburg, for their advertising support this season.
JMU fans have been waiting for Saturday’s football game for decades. After a four-decade span, JMU will finally meet UVA on the gridiron again.
The Dukes travel to Charlottesville on Saturday for a noon kickoff against the ACC opponent. JMU is the betting favorite, but Virginia has solid players capable of pulling the upset.
To analyze Saturday’s game, we connected with Zach Carey of SB Nation’s Streaking the Lawn. Zach, a UVA student, is the managing editor of Streaking the Lawn.
Zach is a budding star in the sports journalism world. He’s a great voice covering UVA sports, and he has the unique perspective of also being UVA student. Huge thanks to Zach for taking the time out of his busy schedule to chat about the in-state matchup.
Saturday marks Virginia’s first home game since the tragic shooting last year, and Virginia will honor Devin Chandler, Lavel Davis Jr., and D’Sean Perry in a pre-game ceremony. From your perspective, what does Saturday mean to the UVA and Charlottesville communities?
Zach: Saturday means absolutely everything to the UVA and Charlottesville communities. As someone who considers themselves at the heart of both, I expect Saturday morning to be an emotional one. It’s hard to quantify the respect that I and the majority of the local community has for this team and its individuals.
Heck, I’m still figuring out how to get back into covering football after last season ended with writing about an unspeakable tragedy that was near and dear to all of us. So to see these players who lost teammates, friends, even brothers take the field in Charlottesville with the families of Perry, Chandler, and Davis Jr. being honored beforehand… yeah that’ll be something else.
Tony Elliott handled last year’s tragedy with tremendous grace and courage. He’s also yet to see consistent on-field results. How are UVA fans feeling about the Virginia coaching staff entering Week 2 of Year 2 of the Elliott era?
Zach: The confidence in Elliott and the Wahoo coaching staff varies across the fanbase. I’d like to think that Elliott will be allowed a bit of a grace period, but the desire for results is real. It’s a harsh world; at a certain point you have to walk the walk and not just talk the talk especially after Virginia hasn’t performed well on the recruiting trail.
Offensive Coordinator Des Kitchings definitely gets the brunt of the blame particularly as the play caller. I actually thought he called a really nice second half versus Tennessee, but he’s no Tony Elliott as a play caller or an offensive schemer. So fans are antsy to see Elliott take more responsibility and try to replicate his NCAA Championship winning play calling performances in Charlottesville.
Defensive Coordinator John Rudzinski is probably the most appreciated of the three for how quickly he turned around an awful 2021 Virginia defense into an above average group in 2022.
Not to hype Saturday’s game up too much, but I do think a healthy chunk of Wahoo fans are trying to get a feel for if this is the end of the beginning of Elliott’s program or if it’s the beginning of the end. Losing the home opener to an in-state rival like JMU that’s been considered a little brother program for the longest time would be a pretty big hit to the hopes of the optimists like me.
I saw in the preseason you were optimistic about UVA’s 2023 outlook. What makes you believe in the 2023 version of the Cavaliers?
Zach: UVA could be straight up bad in 2023. That I don’t doubt. A 1-11 or 2-10 record is absolutely on the table. I think where my belief that the ‘Hoos can hit the 5-7 mark comes from is the potential that this roster has.
Tony Muskett can sling the pill as the quarterback. The running back room is deep and talented. The wide receivers are well balanced and boast elite traits. The offense line could be serviceable against competition that isn’t Tennessee. Defensively, the line is the strength of the team. The safeties fly around and make plays everywhere. The linebackers are good run defenders, and the corners might be unproven but there’s ability there.
Again, this could blow up in my face. And maybe it’s just wishful thinking. But Virginia’s schedule is nothing particularly special beyond last week (all due respect to a Dukes’ team that could very well get a win on Saturday) and I think there’s a world where the Cavaliers go 5-7 and Virginia fans leave 2023 feeling fairly satisfied. So I’m sticking to my gut and staying optimistic while I can.
What needs to happen on Saturday for Virginia to beat JMU?
Zach: It sure would be valuable for quarterback Tony Muskett to be healthy. He left the fourth quarter of the Tennessee game with a left shoulder injury after being driven hard into the ground on a sack. Elliott said on Tuesday that Muskett is day-to-day and will be a game time decision. After the ‘Hoos used the same messaging with Brennan Armstrong’s rib injury in 2021 before he didn’t play against Notre Dame, I’m inclined to think Muskett won’t play. But I won’t pretend to have inside information.
So, long story short, Virginia probably needs Muskett to play. True freshman quarterback Anthony Colandrea has garnered praise from the staff for his mentality, running ability, and big arm. He’s more than likely the program’s quarterback of the future. But he simply doesn’t have the arm talent that Muskett does right now nor the experience to handle being a drop back passer in a pocket that will collapse on him.
With either quarterback, UVA will have to establish the run. Yeah, it’s an outdated point of emphasis in football, but Elliott and his staff preach it hard. The Cavaliers have the backs and some of the offensive line pieces to be a good ground team — evidenced by their 104 rushing yards and a touchdown in the second half versus Tennessee. Forcing James Madison to devote excess resources to stopping the run would allow Des Kitchings to start utilizing play action bootlegs and quick hitters. That’s how the Wahoos want to thrive on offense, by winning on the ground and using that to generate easy completions.
Defensively, Virginia needs to generate more pressure up front than the defensive line did against Tennessee. The potential return of star edge defender Chico Bennett would go a long way in doing just that, and I’d like to see more stunts from a group that has some inside-outside versatility. Bennett and fellow edge Kam Butler are also both capable of dropping into coverage, so I’m keen to see if Rudzinski will play around with that more by sending blitzes from Virginia’s physical linebackers.
The defense also needs to be better at tackling at the second level. SPUR/slot corner Tayvonn Kyle especially struggled against Tennessee, so how he handles JMU’s attack and how the Dukes potentially try to exploit him will be worth watching.
(If you’re willing to share) What’s your score prediction for Saturday’s game?
Zach: In our season preview podcast I believe I had a 17-14 UVA win. But I’ll flip flop and go 24-20 James Madison. Muskett’s health is too up in the air for me to be confident in a win. And even then I believe JMU is a healthier, better oiled machine than the ‘Hoos are, which I suspect will be the difference on Saturday.
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