JMU football’s home opener didn’t go according to plan, with the Dukes needing a late defensive stand to outlast Gardner-Webb on Sept. 7.

On the road, JMU looked sharper. The Dukes steamrolled Charlotte 30-7 to open the season, and they followed the Gardner-Webb performance up with a 70-50 victory over the ACC’s North Carolina.

Can JMU (3-0) look the part of a Group of Five College Football Playoff contender this Saturday at home against Ball State (1-2, 0-1 MAC)? The Dukes are three-touchdown favorites, and they’ll need to execute well to take care of the pesky MAC opponent.

Here are three keys to the game.

Don’t Overlook Ball State

It would be human nature for JMU’s players to get caught up in the noise after beating UNC. After all, the Dukes look like the Sun Belt’s best chance to make the CFP.

Ball State isn’t a pushover, though. While the Cardinals aren’t a great G5 team – and they very well might miss a bowl game – they have a few individual players that can help them pull an upset if their opponent isn’t focused.

The Cardinals lost to Miami 62-0, but the Hurricanes look like the ACC’s best team. In games against Missouri State and Central Michigan, Cardinals have scored 42 and 34 points, respectively. Redshirt freshman quarterback can sling it, throwing for 285 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 37-34 loss to Central Michigan.

JMU is better than Ball State, but if the Dukes overlook the Cardinals and play like they did against Gardner-Webb, an upset isn’t out of the question.

Run the dang ball

Ball State’s run defense is porous. The Cardinals rank 121st nationally in rushing defense, allowing 213.3 rushing yards per game.

In FBS games, Ball State is allowing an average of 289 rushing yards per game. The Cardinals’ defensive front can’t hang with JMU in this game.

There’s no reason JMU, which ranks 22nd nationally in run blocking according to Pro Football Focus, shouldn’t lean on the running game Saturday. The Dukes are talented at running back with George Pettaway and Tyler Purdy capable of leading them to a huge day on the ground Saturday. QB Alonza Barnett should also help on the ground, as it wouldn’t be a shock if the Dukes ran for 250-300+ yards this weekend.

Contain Tanner Koziol, Kiael Kelly

While Ball State might miss a bowl game, the combination of Semonza and Koziol should do damage in the MAC. Koziol, a 6’7” tight end, presents a matchup nightmare in the passing game.

Semonza leads Cardinals on a 97-yard TD drive in the final minute! Koziol scores go-ahead TD, Ball State leads 34-30 with under a minute to play.

Koziol: 8 catches and career-high 109 receiving yards. #1AAT x #WeFly x #Team100

— Ball State Football (@BallStateFB) September 21, 2024

Through three games, Koziol has a team-high 20 catches, 211 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. In the passing game, he’s Ball State’s guy.

JMU struggled against UNC’s tight ends last week, with Bryson Nesbit and John Copenhaver combining for seven catches for 133 yards and two touchdowns. Can the Dukes’ secondary and linebackers have better luck covering a talented tight end this week?

As for Kelly, he was Ball State’s starting QB at the end of the 2023 season. The Cardinals moved him to cornerback in the offseason – a slightly weird move – but they still use him on offense.

Through three games, Kelly has 10 carries, two receptions, and two pass attempts. He’s a player to monitor, especially on offense. He needs to touch the ball for Ball State’s offense to be its best, which the Cardinals are starting to understand after a couple games.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications