JMU football doesn’t need to beat Louisville to make the College Football Playoff, but it sure wouldn’t hurt.

We don’t know how the Group of Five race for a playoff spot (or two, since the G5 is not mandated to only receive one berth) might play out, but Friday is clearly JMU’s best chance for a signature win. Of the remaining 11 teams on JMU football’s schedule, just one ranks inside the top 65 of ESPN’s SP+.

It’s Louisville at No. 20. (The Dukes are 44th, for what it’s worth).

JMU’s other FBS nonconference games come against Liberty (No. 70) and Washington State (No. 83). Liberty was tied with Maine at halftime in Week 1, and Washington State beat Idaho, 13-10. Uh oh!

Coming into the season, matchups with Louisiana and Georgia Southern looked like huge conference games. Well, Louisiana lost to Rice at home and starting quarterback Walker Howard exited with injury. As for Georgia Southern, the Eagles led Fresno State 14-13 at halftime. They lost 42-14. Clay Helton’s seat is heating up. Coastal Carolina lost to UVA by 42, suggesting the Chanticleers might be a Sun Belt cellar dweller in 2025 as Tim Beck’s seat also grows warm.

JMU has a legitimate chance to win all of its games against G5 opposition. But would that be enough to make the College Football Playoff without a win over Louisville?

Certainly teams like App State, ODU, and Texas State could offer chances for meaningful wins. The Mountaineers routed Charlotte in Week 1 and have seemingly winnable games against Boise State and Oregon State on their schedule. If the Mountaineers go 4-0 in the nonconference with wins over Boise and Oregon State, they’ll be viewed as an elite G5 team in 2025. ODU hung tough with Indiana and it still faces Virginia Tech and Liberty. Win one or both of those games, and the Monarchs become a sneaky solid G5 foe. Texas State still has massive games with UTSA and Arizona State on its schedule after smoking Eastern Michigan. The Bobcats could be a top-50 type of team with a split against UTSA and Arizona State.

There’s a lot of unknowns after just one week of games, but the Sun Belt’s “top teams” were largely underwhelming in Week 1 with Louisiana losing and Georgia Southern looking woeful. The American Conference’s contenders were a different story. That doesn’t bode well for JMU’s playoff aspirations.

Tulane opened its season with a 20-point blowout of Northwestern, which admittedly is one of the worst P4 teams in the country. But beating any Big Ten team by 20 points looks good on paper. With games left against Duke (at home) and Ole Miss, the Green Wave could have a great resume even if they suffer a loss or two and end up as the American Conference champion.

Navy looks like a wagon after a 10-win 2024 and a blowout win to start 2025. The Midshipmen could flirt with playoff contention. Memphis hosts Arkansas and looks like a playoff threat given its deep and talented roster and a schedule that gives it conference home games with Tulane, Navy, and USF, which opened its season by thrashing Boise State for a signature win.

For the glass-half-full crowd, it’s also quite possible that the American beats itself up and ends up with a two or three loss champion, paving the way for JMU to make the playoff field. It’s way too early in the season to accurately predict the G5 playoff picture, but if the Dukes drop a game, they’ll need some breaks to go their way to make the 12-team field.

If JMU goes undefeated, however, it’s going to be almost impossible to keep the Dukes out of the playoff. A 13-0 record with a road win against an ACC contender? That’s the resume of a no-doubt playoff team. Even a 12-1 JMU team with a Sun Belt loss and an ACC win would have a credible playoff case. Beating Louisville gives JMU a game it can point to that proves it belongs on the same field with the sport’s best.

Friday’s game is not a must-win. An 11 or 12-win Sun Belt champion will still be in the conversation for a playoff appearance. But a win Friday gives JMU an early lead in what’s likely to be a competitive playoff race among G5 powers.

Opportunities don’t get bigger than this.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications