JMU football (8-2, 4-2 SBC) faces App State (4-5, 2-4 SBC) on Saturday with plenty at stake for the Dukes. If they can win out and Georgia Southern loses again, the Dukes will play for a Sun Belt title.

Here’s what the Dukes need to do to beat App State to keep their SBC East title dreams alive.

Avoid unforced errors

There likely won’t be many times we’ll say this in the JMU-App State rivalry, but one of these teams (JMU) is clearly superior to the other on paper.

The Dukes’ defense and special teams units are among the best in the country, and the offense does enough to put JMU in the win column more often than not. App State is 4-5 with inexplicable turnover woes and a porous defense. The Mountaineers have lost five games by double digits, including two losses by over 30 points. Shawn Clark is on the hot seat for a reason.

JMU wins this game if it doesn’t make unforced errors. App State’s most recent home victory was a 28-20 triumph over Old Dominion. The Monarchs turned the ball over four times in App State territory and turned the ball over on downs near midfield and still only lost by a touchdown. App State has one win (6-4 ECU) over a team with a winning record, and the Pirates have racked up half their wins since firing Mike Houston, which came well after the App State game.

South Alabama won in Boone by 34 points and ran for 320 yards in the victory. Marshall dropped 52 on App State. It’s the only FBS game all season the Thundering Herd have even topped 40 points. Louisiana turned App State over five times — the Mountaineers rank 128th nationally in turnover margin — and won by 10 despite a mediocre offensive showing.

If JMU limits turnovers and stupid false start penalties, they will have a great chance to beat an App State team struggling mightily. The Mountaineers aren’t going to look like this very often. JMU needs to throw a punch in this rivalry with App State in a down season.

Get Pettaway and the Knight brothers in space

George Pettaway, Wayne Knight, and Yamir Knight are matchup issues for most Group of Five defenses. Pettaway and Wayne Knight should find success on the ground against App State’s defense, which ranks 132nd nationally in defensive rushing success rate, per collegefootballinsiders.com.

The Mountaineers allow 202 rushing yards per game and more than five yards per carry. They’ve struggled all season to stop explosive running backs. Coastal Carolina’s Braydon Bennett ran the ball nine times for 88 yards and three scores in a Nov. 7 win over App State.

JMU doesn’t need to overthink its game plan against the Mountaineers. Run the football and lean on the passing game once App State begins to crowd the line of scrimmage. Like ODU, App State struggles to stop explosive pass plays. The Mountaineers have allowed five passing plays of 60+ yards this season, per cfbstats.com. Only Texas Tech (6) has allowed more.

App State’s defense sets up well for JMU’s offense. Run the ball with your speedy running backs and then go over the top with guys like Yamir Knight, Cam Ross, and Omarion Dollison. There are big-play touchdowns out there if the Dukes take their shots downfield.

Make special teams a weapon

JMU could have defeated ODU by a couple touchdowns. The Dukes led 18-7 before a blocked punt led to a quick ODU touchdown that flipped momentum. Take that play out of the game, and it’s unclear if ODU takes a halftime lead or trails for the entirety of the first 30 minutes.

JMU can’t afford those types of game-changing special teams issues against App State. The Dukes have twice allowed blocked punts in road games, and they’ve somehow won both games. They’re tempting fate.

App State’s special teams unit ranks 114th nationally in efficiency, per ESPN’s metrics. JMU’s ranks 11th.

If the Dukes can once again make special teams a weapon rather than a liability, it’s hard to envision App State having enough offensive firepower without star receiver Kaedin Robinson (out for season) to make up for a bad special teams and defense.

Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications